Table 5.
Prediction of 1-year graft loss in the training and validation sets
| Scores | Training set (N = 1262) | Scores | Validation set (N = 520) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC ± SE | 95% CIs | p value | AUC ± SE | 95% CIs | p value | ||
| CCI | 0.88 ± 0.02 | 0.85–0.90 | < 0.001 | CCI | 0.75 ± 0.05 | 0.65–0.85 | < 0.001 |
| D-MELD | 0.59 ± 0.02 | 0.55–0.63 | < 0.001 | D-MELD | 0.63 ± 0.05 | 0.54–0.73 | 0.007 |
| MELD | 0.59 ± 0.02 | 0.55–0.63 | < 0.001 | MELD | 0.54 ± 0.05 | 0.45–0.63 | 0.40 |
| BAR | 0.59 ± 0.02 | 0.55–0.63 | < 0.001 | EAD | 0.53 ± 0.05 | 0.43–0.63 | 0.50 |
| EAD | 0.56 ± 0.02 | 0.52–0.60 | 0.004 | BAR | 0.45 ± 0.05 | 0.36–0.55 | 0.32 |
| CCI cut-off | Sens | Spec | DOR | CCI cut-off | Sens | Spec | DOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2 (25th) | 94.9 | 28.6 | 7.5 | 12.2 | 86.5 | 33.1 | 3.2 |
| 29.6 (50th) | 89.1 | 57.8 | 11.2 | 29.6 | 78.4 | 53.4 | 4.2 |
| 47.3 (75th) | 75.0 | 87.5 | 21.0 | 47.3 | 56.8 | 80.5 | 5.4 |
| 84.9 (90th) | 53.5 | 99.9 | 1,149.4 | 84.9 | 27.0 | 99.2 | 45.9 |
AUC area under the curve, SE standard error, CIs confidence intervals, CCI comprehensive complication index, D-MELD donor-model for end-stage liver disease, MELD model for end-stage liver disease, EAD early allograft dysfunction, BAR balance of risk, DOR diagnostic odds ratio