Table 1.
Parameters and fitting metrics used in the model (summary of 95% confidence interval uncertainty ranges). HH = human-human, AH = animal-human, AA = animal-animal.
| Model Parameters | Parameter value (95% confidence interval) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Antibacterial usage | ||
| Animals ΛA | 0–100% | Majority of antimicrobials used in animals raised for food (73%, [5,6]) |
| Humans ΛH | 0–100% of animal use | |
| Environment ΛE | 0–100% of human use | |
| Transmission of ABR | ||
| Humans to humans βHH | 0.0–100.0% | Explore full parameter space |
| Animals to humans βAH | 0.0–100.0% of HH | Fraction of βHH |
| Environment to humans βEH | 0.0–100.0% of HH | Fraction of βHH |
| Animals to animals βAA | 0.0–100.0% | Explore full parameter space |
| Humans to animals βHA | 0.0–100% of AH and AA | Assume wide range, but less than βAH [10] and βAA transmission |
| Environment to animals βEA (habitat/ drinking water) | 0.0–100.0% of AA | Fraction of βAA |
| Humans to environment βHE (sewage) | 0.0–100.0% | Explore full parameter space |
| Animals to environment βAE (manure) | 0.0–100.0% | Explore full parameter space |
| Carriage of resistance | ||
| Rate of loss of resistant bacteria after 12 months μH = μE = μA | 0–100% | Explore full parameter space |
| Fitting Parameters | Value (95% confidence interval) | Source |
| Prevalence of colonisation with ESBL-producing organisms | ||
| Humans | ||
| 2004 | 0.0–0.0% | 0/120 healthy adults in Thailand [22] |
| 2008 | 46.7–62.1% | 87/160 healthy asymptomatic volunteers in Thailand [28] |
| 2009 (not included in fitting) | 35.2–44.3% | 177/445 healthy asymptomatic volunteers in Thailand [29] |
| 2010 | 64.9–73.7% | 289/417 door to door sampling among healthy individuals in Thailand [23] |
| 2012 | 71.4–78.5% | 430/574 healthy workers in a food factory and food animal farm in Thailand [24] |
| Animals | 11.1–60.3% | Upper bound from rectal swabs in pigs (241/400), lower bound from fresh food (12/54) in Bangkok and East/North Thailand [24] |
| Rectal swabs of animals, 2012–2013 | ||
| Pig | 55.4–65.0% | 241/400 in East/North Thailand [24] |
| Broiler | 26.9–48.1% | 30/80 in East/North Thailand [24] |
| Laying Hen | 0.0–7.7% | 2/61 in East/North Thailand [24] |
| Fresh pork meat | 0.0–25.6% | 2/18 in East/North Thailand [24] |
| Fresh food, 2012–2013 | ||
| Chicken | 4.9–52.2% | 4/14 in Bangkok & central [24] |
| Pork | 28.1–78.6% | 8/15 in Bangkok & central [24] |
| Beef | 0.0–0.0% | 0/11 in Bangkok & central [24] |
| Fish | 0.0–0.0% | 0/14 in Bangkok & central [24] |
| Environment | 0.0–24.7% | Lower bound from water in Bangkok and central province [24] and upper bound from stagnant water on food animal farms [24] |
| Canal water, 2012–2013 | 0.0–19.3% | 1/15 in Bangkok and central [24] |
| Stagnant water on food animal farms, 2012–2013 | 0.0–24.7% | 3/25 in Bangkok and central [24] |
| Effluent fluid after treatment with chlorine prior to draining into a public water source from hospitals | 2.4–17.6% | 6/60 in public hospitals in Thailand [30] |