Table 2.

Reduction in colonisation with resistant bacteria in humans between 2020 and 2040 for different potential interventions. The National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance (NSP-AMR; 2017–2021) in Thailand aims to reduce antibiotic use (ABU) in humans by 20%, animals by 30% and increase sanitary knowledge by 20% (in 2021). We investigate other hypothetical interventions aiming to reduce ABU in humans and animals and other transmission related interventions.

Intervention or scenario	Median reduction in colonisation with resistant bacteria in humans (95% credible interval) 2020–2040
NSP-AMR, Thailand	12.2 (6.0–18.8)
NSP-AMR with 30% reduction in human ABU	16.7 (8.5–24.9)
NSP-AMR with 30% increase in sanitary practices	15.1 (7.4–24.6)
50% reduction in all transmission only	13.4 (5.7–25.6)
50% reduction in water related transmission only	0.1 (0.0–1.2)
20% reduction in human ABU with 50% reduction in human-human transmission	13.9 (7.9–22.3)
20% reduction in human ABU with 95% reduction in transmission from sewage/manure	6.3 (3.5–8.6)