Table 6.

Prediction for disease progression at each examination timing before onset.

Time to	SVMst (cutoff = 0.5)				AV-45 (cutoff = 1.11)
Conversion	1 year	2 year	3 year	4 year	1 year	2 year	3 year	4 year	overall
pMCI/sMCI	106/128	94/128	48/128	24/128	34/63	28/63	18/63	5/63	85/63
AUC	0.9208	0.9135	0.8667	0.9020	0.8340	0.8220	0.8474	0.7619	0.8287
Accuracy (%)	86.3	83.8	81.3	84.9	71.1	70.3	67.9	61.8	78.4
Sensitivity (%)	85.8	79.8	66.7	75.0	91.2	92.9	94.4	100.0	91.8
Specificity (%)	86.7	86.7	86.7	86.7	60.3	60.3	60.3	58.7	60.3
PPV	84.3	81.5	65.3	51.4	55.4	51.0	40.5	16.1	75.7
NPV	88.1	85.4	87.4	94.9	92.7	95.0	97.4	100.0	84.4
F1 (%)	85.0	80.6	66.0	61.0	68.9	65.8	56.7	27.8	83.0
MCC (%)	72.5	66.7	53.0	53.5	49.7	49.4	45.6	30.8	56.0

The numbers in parentheses indicate the cutoff value.

PPV, positive predictive value (= precision); NPV, negative predictive rate; AUC, area under the curve; MCC, Matthews correlation coefficient.