Table 1.
Base case parameter estimates
| Name | Description | Value | Source |
| b | Net rate of entrance into the jail, phase 1 (1/day) | −0.004 | Jail dataset |
| Net rate of entrance into the jail, phase 2 (1/day) | −0.0141 | ||
| Net rate of entrance into the jail, phase 3 (1/day) | −0.0076 | ||
| Net rate of entrance into the jail, phase 4 (1/day) | 0.0005 | ||
| β | Transmission rate (1/day) | Calibrated | |
| ε | Incubation period−1 (1/day) | 0.18 Incubation period: lognormal (5.1, 0.89 |
12 |
| α | Proportion of cases that are asymptomatic | 0.405 uniform (0.25–0.56) |
13 14 |
| γ | Recovery rate (1/day) | 0.1 Infection period: truncated N (10, 6.25, min=5, max=20) |
15 16 |
| η | Proportion of symptomatic infections that are hospitalised | 0.14 | Jail dataset |
| μ | Recovery rate from hospital (1/day) | 0.2 Length of hospitalisation: lognormal (5, 1) |
16 |
| dI | Probability of death due to symptomatic COVID-19 infection | 0.01 | Jail dataset |