Table 5.

Poisson and negative binomial regression analysis and model comparison

Parameter	Poisson regression		Negative Binomial
	Estimate (std. error)	P-value	Estimate (Std. Error)	P-value
Intercept	2.0412050 (0.1071191)	< 2e–16	2.5712491 (0.2180926)	< 2e–16
Month August	0.1997012 (0.0321717)	5.39e–10	0.1489509 (0.0596761)	0.01256
Month December	0.5959069 (0.0338554)	< 2e–16	0.6129467 (0.0621383)	< 2e–16
Month February	0.4727498 (0.0339011)	< 2e–16	0.6179138 (0.0614459)	< 2e–16
Month January	0.5595071 (0.0360984)	< 2e–16	0.6190579 (0.0648127)	< 2e–16
Month July	0.2041098 (0.0314755)	8.89e–11	0.1460258 (0.0593064)	0.01381
Month June	0.2536605 (0.0316676)	1.15e–15	0.1937207 (0.0588766)	0.00100
Month March	0.5101808 (0.0326023)	< 2e–16	0.5079790 (0.0602246)	< 2e–16
Month May	0.2597362 (0.0312052)	< 2e–16	0.2216359 (0.0576237)	0.00012
Month November	0.7095393 (0.0297147)	< 2e–16	0.6977014 (0.0570473)	< 2e–16
Month October	0.3252624 (0.0310680)	< 2e–16	0.3767558 (0.0572062)	4.52e–11
Month September	0.4173954 (0.0312603)	< 2e–16	0.3839196 (0.0587822)	6.52e–11
April (Reference)
Elevation > 2000 m	0.2372410 (0.0291927)	4.41e–16	0.1554760 (0.0537200)	0.00380
Elv1801-1900 m	0.3615582 (0.0236513)	< 2e–16	0.3888692 (0.0425264)	< 2e–16
Elv1901-2000 m	0.2054667 (0.0237197)	< 2e–16	0.1932937 (0.0422989)	4.88e–06
Elv < 1800 m (Reference)
Rainfall	0.0031166 (0.0001301)	< 2e–16	0.0031249 (0.0002604)	< 2e–16
TMP AVG	– 0.1036946 (0.0050472)	< 2e–16	– 0.1262568 (0.0099988)	< 2e–16
TMPMIN	0.0075262 (0.0040111)	0.0606	0.0071389 (0.0074662)	0.33899
Sex male	0.0518893 (0.0118691)	1.23e–05	0.1047463 (0.0228256)	4.45e–06
Female (Reference)
Age 5–14	– 0.7515411 (0.0145588)	< 2e–16	– 0.7747979 (0.0275689)	< 2e–16
Age < 5	– 0.7798807 (0.0147003)	< 2e–16	– 0.8021734 (0.0276449)	< 2e–16
Age 15 + (Reference)
Theta (std. error)	–		0.46420
AIC	89,437		67,948
BIC	89607.08		69211.15