Table 2:
Expected OPV restart probabilities by serotype and expect cases by strain for different policy options (2019–2029)
| Scenario | Restarts triggered | Estimated expected cases | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPV1 | OPV2 | OPV3 | WPV1 | cVDPV1 | cVDPV2 | cVDPV3 | Total* | |
| Control scenarios | ||||||||
| RC2 | 0% | 89% | 0% | 1,407 | 28 | 26,226 | 0 | 35,242 |
| tOPVRISIA | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2,510 | 380 | 2,586 | 87 | 11,033 |
| tOPVRI | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6,757 | 9,922 | 2,735 | 1,185 | 31,758 |
| 2IPV2025 | 0% | 81% | 0% | 1,266 | 0 | 16,761 | 0 | 24,464 |
| RC2noRestarts | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1,382 | 0 | 30,340 | 0 | 34,668 |
| Eradication scenarios | ||||||||
| RC2* | 20% | 44% | 0% | 324** | 3,256 | 6,292 | 32 | 15,168 |
| 1IPV2025 | 57% | 49% | 0% | 327** | 7,398 | 6,367 | 44 | 20,428 |
Abbreviations: cVDPV#, circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus of serotype #; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV#, OPV containing serotypes #; RC2, control reference case; RC2noRestarts, RC2 without restart option; RC2*, WPV1 eradication reference case; T0, beginning of analytical time horizon (i.e., January 1, 2019); Tend, end of analytical time horizon (i.e., December 31, 2029); tOPV, trivalent OPV; tOPVRISIA, 1 dose of IPV in 2019–2023 followed by tOPV use only from January 1, 2024 with pSIAs; tOPVRI, 1 dose of IPV in 2019–2023 followed by tOPV use only from January 1, 2024 without pSIAs; VAPP, vaccine-associated paralytic polio; VDPV, vaccine-derived poliovirus; WPV1, serotype 1 wild poliovirus; 1IPV2025, 1 dose of IPV in 2019–2029; 2IPV2025, 1 dose of IPV in 2019–2024 followed by 2 doses of IPV from January 1, 2025
Note:
includes all cases (i.e., totals from all infections with live polioviruses, including WPV, VDPVs, and VAPP, with VDPVs including cases associated with OPV-related viruses and including cases associated with containment breaches)
WPV1 cases occurring in 2019–2022 (before WPV1 eradication for the eradication scenarios)