Fig. 1.

National context of projected climate impacts on birds and mammals. Modeled relationships between mean percentage change in species richness for each country (projected to 2070) and national-level socioeconomic datasets: (A) governance score, (B) per capita GDP, and (C) per capita CO₂ emissions. In each case, results are shown for a low (RCP 2.6) and a high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario; see SI Appendix, Fig. S1, for two intermediate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0). For A and B, relationships shown are for birds and mammals combined, while C shows the relationship for mammals only (since the percentage species richness change for birds was not significantly related to CO₂ emissions in either RCP scenario). For full GLM results, coefficient estimates, and significance values, refer to SI Appendix, Table S1. Shaded areas illustrate 95% confidence bands. Governance score is the mean value of the six national-level worldwide governance indicators provided by the World Bank for the year 2018, which are standardized scores that range from −2.5 to 2.5, where a lower score indicates weaker governance, and which capture government effectiveness; control of corruption; political stability and absence of violence; rule of law; regulatory quality; and voice and accountability (15).