Fig. 2.

The diagram shows time-specific comparisons of observations and model-based predictions, and the corresponding evolution of model weights, for mid-continent mallard ducks. Upper panel, population estimates of midcontinent mallards (in millions) compared with predictions of each member of the model set (SaRw = additive mortality and weakly density-dependent reproduction, ScRw = compensatory mortality and weakly density-dependent reproduction, SaRs = additive mortality and strongly density-dependent reproduction, ScRs = compensatory mortality and strongly density-dependent reproduction). Error bars represents 95% confidence intervals for observed population estimates. The arrow represents a weighted mean annual prediction based on the entire model set. Note that the mallard breeding population was not observed in the spring of 2020. Lower panel, annual changes in model weights for each member of the model set (the information state); weights were assumed to be equal in 1995.