Table 3.
Regressions results for the effect of one month localized lockdown on total VAT collection, estimated with two-way fixed effects for conurbations and standalone municipalities, January-May 2020
| Dependent variable: VAT growth | All Conurbations and standalone municipalities | Excluding Greater Santiago | As in (1) interacting lockdown & standalone | As in (1) with per capita deaths | As in (1) with log per capita incidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
|
| Lockdown |
-0.184‡ |
-0.188† |
-0.243§ |
-0.126 |
-0.157 |
| (0.089) |
(0.020) |
(0.064) |
(0.106) |
(0.116) |
|
| Standalone |
-0.00294 |
||||
| (0.044) |
|||||
| Standalone × lockdown |
-0.042 |
||||
| (0.105) |
|||||
| New deaths per 100 000 |
-0.007 |
||||
| (0.006) |
|||||
| New log cases per 100 000 |
-0.014 |
||||
| (0.027) |
|||||
| Observations |
175 |
170 |
175 |
175 |
175 |
| Adjusted R2 |
0.325 |
0.322 |
0.101 |
0.326 |
0.323 |
| Units |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
| Conurbations |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
| Standalone municipalities | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
VAT – value-added tax
*All specifications have both geography (conurbation, standalone municipalities) and time fixed-effects. Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Localized lockdowns at the conurbation level are aggregated and weighted by total 2018 VAT. COVID-19 deaths and cases are calculated at the conurbation level.
†P < 0.10.
‡P < 0.05.
§P < 0.01.