Table 1.
Observed and predicted 2020 mortality rates from selected major diseases across different Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) areas
| Causes of death | Wuhan | Hubei without Wuhan | China without Hubei | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed per 100 000 | Predicted per 100 000* | Rate ratio (95% CI) | Observed per 100 000 | Predicted per 100 000* | Rate ratio (95% CI) | Observed per 100 000 | Predicted per 100 000* | Rate ratio (95% CI) | |||
| All causes | 1147.2 | 734.7 | 1.56 (1.33 to 1.87) | 867.3 | 871.2 | 1.00 (0.86 to 1.16) | 675.4 | 715.4 | 0.94 (0.86 to 1.04) | ||
| Infectious diseases† | 290.1 | 47.8 | 6.07 (4.02 to 10.98) | 27.6 | 31.3 | 0.88 (0.68 to 1.22) | 20.3 | 29.0 | 0.70 (0.61 to 0.81) | ||
| Pneumonia: | 275.2 | 33.1 | 8.32 (5.19 to 17.02) | 11.4 | 15.8 | 0.72 (0.50 to 1.16) | 9.5 | 17.8 | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.63) | ||
| Unspecified viral | 34.6 | 0.6 | 56.39 (9.95 to ∞)‡ | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.34 (0.96 to ∞)‡ | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.43 (0.32 to 0.62) | ||
| Other | 48.0 | 32.5 | 1.48 (0.92 to 3.10) | 5.0 | 15.3 | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.53) | 9.0 | 16.9 | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.63) | ||
| Covid-19 | 192.6 | 0.0 | – | 4.6 | 0.0 | – | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | ||
| Other | 14.9 | 16.1 | 0.92 (0.51 to 2.85) | 16.2 | 15.3 | 1.06 (0.77 to 1.63) | 10.8 | 11.3 | 0.95 (0.84 to 1.08) | ||
| Non-communicable diseases | 757.6 | 625.5 | 1.21 (1.03 to 1.46) | 744.1 | 760.1 | 0.98 (0.85 to 1.14) | 606.7 | 635.7 | 0.95 (0.87 to 1.05) | ||
| Cancer | 186.4 | 182.7 | 1.02 (0.81 to 1.33) | 179.1 | 166.3 | 1.08 (0.94 to 1.25) | 153.9 | 155.1 | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.06) | ||
| Cardiovascular disease: | 408.1 | 316.0 | 1.29 (1.05 to 1.65) | 416.1 | 424.8 | 0.98 (0.83 to 1.18) | 334.0 | 349.8 | 0.95 (0.86 to 1.07) | ||
| Myocardial infarction | 139.9 | 114.0 | 1.23 (0.93 to 1.73) | 150.4 | 157.6 | 0.95 (0.78 to 1.20) | 135.9 | 145.9 | 0.93 (0.84 to 1.04) | ||
| Ischaemic stroke | 96.9 | 77.3 | 1.24 (0.83 to 2.19) | 70.0 | 64.0 | 1.03 (0.84 to 1.30) | 82.2 | 85.2 | 0.96 (0.86 to 1.07) | ||
| Haemorrhagic stroke | 56.6 | 45.7 | 1.25 (0.91 to 1.91) | 90.8 | 88.5 | 1.09 (0.88 to 1.42) | 58.5 | 61.0 | 0.96 (0.87 to 1.08) | ||
| Hypertensive heart disease | 59.9 | 29.9 | 2.00 (1.24 to 4.25) | 48.3 | 58.7 | 0.82 (0.63 to 1.13) | 24.4 | 25.6 | 0.95 (0.84 to 1.10) | ||
| Chronic respiratory disease: | 55.6 | 51.8 | 1.07 (0.72 to 1.87) | 73.4 | 94.9 | 0.77 (0.60 to 1.04) | 55.2 | 67.2 | 0.82 (0.71 to 0.96) | ||
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 45.5 | 40.5 | 1.13 (0.73 to 2.15) | 64.9 | 86.8 | 0.75 (0.58 to 1.01) | 50.2 | 61.6 | 0.82 (0.71 to 0.95) | ||
| Diabetes | 45.6 | 24.9 | 1.83 (1.08 to 4.37) | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.99 (0.72 to 1.49) | 18.5 | 19.6 | 0.94 (0.84 to 1.07) | ||
| Chronic kidney disease | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.51 (0.60 to ∞)‡ | 8.5 | 7.8 | 1.10 (0.70 to 2.16) | 4.3 | 4.8 | 0.89 (0.76 to 1.07) | ||
| Other | 54.6 | 49.3 | 1.11 (0.77 to 1.84) | 49.5 | 48.6 | 1.02 (0.84 to 1.28) | 40.8 | 39.1 | 1.04 (0.95 to 1.15) | ||
| Injury | 53.7 | 46.2 | 1.16 (0.77 to 2.03) | 83.6 | 74.8 | 1.12 (0.88 to 1.47) | 37.7 | 40.9 | 0.92 (0.84 to 1.02) | ||
| Road traffic incident | 4.6 | 7.2 | 0.63 (0.28 to ∞)‡ | 9.4 | 15.0 | 0.63 (0.44 to 0.99) | 8.7 | 11.3 | 0.77 (0.68 to 0.88) | ||
| Suicide | 11.7 | 7.0 | 1.66 (0.74 to ∞)† | 32.2 | 19.9 | 1.62 (1.15 to 2.53) | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.09 (0.93 to 1.30) | ||
| Fall | 24.5 | 17.1 | 1.43 (0.81 to 3.92) | 22.0 | 19.0 | 1.16 (0.83 to 1.77) | 12.4 | 12.8 | 0.97 (0.87 to 1.09) | ||
| Other | 13.0 | 15.1 | 0.86 (0.45 to 2.87) | 20.0 | 20.8 | 0.96 (0.64 to 1.64) | 11.3 | 12.3 | 0.92 (0.77 to 1.11) | ||
| All other diseases | 45.8 | 23.8 | 1.92 (1.17 to 4.32) | 11.9 | 9.0 | 1.33 (0.86 to 2.48) | 10.8 | 10.9 | 0.99 (0.86 to 1.15) | ||
*
Sum of rates from different diseases might not add up to the category sum or overall total owing to rounding in the models.
†
Includes a small number of deaths from maternal, perinatal, and nutritional diseases.
‡
For certain less common diseases, the upper limits of the rate ratio become infinitely large because they involved zero predicted cases in certain circumstances.