Table 10.
Projected changes in commercial harvests for the 16 modeled species, RCP 4.5.
| Fishery group | Fishery | Annual average, 2007–2016 (MM lb) | 2050 Projectiona | 2090 Projectiona | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landings (MM lb) | Percentage change | 95% Confidence interval | Landings (MM lb) | Percentage change | 95% Confidence interval | |||
| Lobster/crab | Blue crab | 168.3 | 180.1 | 7.1% | 2.4–12.7% | 194.5 | 15.6% | 4.4–28.1% |
| Dungeness crab | 58.9 | 49.2 | (16.5%) | (25.2–7.1%) | 41 | (30.4%) | (41.9–18.6%) | |
| American lobster | 126.7 | 128.3 | 1.3% | (3.1)-5.1% | 121.1 | (4.4%) | (11.3)-2.1% | |
| Florida stone Crab (claws) | 4.6 | 3.5 | (25.1%) | (34.6–13.3%) | 3 | (35.6%) | (48.7–20.1%) | |
| Shrimp/mollusk | Sea scallop | 49.3 | 51.5 | 4.3% | 0.4–9.2% | 49.2 | (0.3%) | (4.9)-3.9% |
| Brown shrimp | 107.4 | 104.8 | (2.5%) | (5.6)-0.2% | 102.7 | (4.4%) | (9.6)-0.4% | |
| White shrimp | 109.1 | 120.8 | 10.7% | 5.8–15.2% | 127.7 | 17% | 9–24.1% | |
| California market squid | 179.4 | 193.9 | 8% | 6.1–10.4% | 215 | 19.8% | 15.6–26.1% | |
| High-value fish | Pacific halibut | 43.2 | 43.1 | (0.2%) | (1.8)-1.7% | 44.8 | 3.6% | 1.9–5.8% |
| Sablefish | 39.6 | 42.1 | 6.2% | (1.9)-15% | 44.6 | 12.5% | 5.7–21.5% | |
| Chinook salmon | 14.5 | 13.9 | (3.7%) | (8.6)-1.3% | 14.3 | (0.8%) | (6.5)-5.1% | |
| Summer flounder | 11.2 | 12.4 | 10.2% | 2.1–19.4% | 13 | 15.6% | 3.3–29.4% | |
| Low-value fish | Walleye pollock | 2760.6 | 2765.1 | 0.2% | (1.4)-1.1% | 2840.3 | 2.9% | 1.1–4.5% |
| Pacific cod | 620.2 | 616.4 | (0.6%) | (1.8)-0.6% | 631.2 | 1.8% | (1.6)-5.1% | |
| Yellowfin sole | 290.6 | 257.7 | (11.3%) | (21.9)-0% | 200.4 | (31%) | (44.4–19%) | |
| Chum salmon | 118.7 | 106.8 | (10.1%) | (18)-0.6% | 84.5 | (28.8%) | (38–20.1%) | |
a
The projected change in commercial harvests assumes that the catch of each species would increase or decrease in direct proportion to the projected change in the species’ thermally available habitat.