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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: Drug Alcohol Depend. 2021 Jan 9;220:108516. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2021.108516

Table 3:

Predictors of transition to another substance use class, MACS Study (2004-2016)

OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI)
3 Year Interval: Overall transition 2004-2007 2007-2010 2010-2013 2013-2016
Moved/stayed = 17/2159 Moved/stayed =189/1987 Moved/stayed =42/2134 Moved/stayed =20/2156
Age in years 1.06** (1.01-1.11) 0.99 (0.98-1.01) 1.02 (0.99-1.06) 0.96* (0.93-0.99)
Person of Color (Reference: White) 0.93 (0.33-2.67) 0.46*** (0.30-0.71) 0.73 (0.35-1.51) 0.55 (0.18-1.67)
HIV-Positive (Reference: Negative) 0.64 (0.22-1.93) 1.06 (0.77-1.46) 1.07 (0.57-1.98) 1.67 (0.60-4.62)
Increased Education Level 1.18 (0.70-1.97) 1.36*** (1.21-1.52) 1.12 (0.88-1.43) 1.07 (0.74-1.56)
 
3 Year Interval: Class Specific transition Minimal use to Alcohol only class Alcohol only to Alcohol-Popper class Alcohol-Marijuana-Popper-Cocaine-ED to Alcohol-Popper class Alcohol-Popper to Alcohol only class
Moved/stayed = 16/372 Moved/stayed = 158/995 Moved/stayed = 19/623 Moved/stayed = 12/169
Age in years 1.06* (1.01-1.13) 0.98* (0.96-0.99) 1.00 (0.95-1.06) 0.97 (0.91-1.03)
Person of Color (Reference: White) 0.62 (0.21-1.84) 0.50** (0.30-0.82) 0.14 (0.18-1.05) 0.44** (0.26-0.72)
HIV-Positive (Reference: Negative) 0.45 (0.14-1.49) 1.37 (0.95-1.98) 0.63 (0.25-1.64) 0.70 (0.18-2.73)
Increased Education Level 1.35 (0.84-2.19) 1.27*** (1.11-1.46) 1.41* (1.04-1.92) 1.54 (0.78-3.06)
 
6 Year Interval: Overall transition 2004-2010 2010-2016
Moved/stayed = 217/1733 Moved/stayed = 71/1879
Age in years 1.01 (0.99-1.02) 1.01 (0.99-1.04)
Person of Color (Reference: White) 0.57 (0.39-0.84) 0.67 (0.38-1.18)
HIV-Positive (Reference: Negative) 1.04 (0.76-1.40) 1.03 (0.63-1.68)
Increased Education Level 1.32*** (1.18-1.47) 1.03 (0.88-1.22)
 
6 Year Interval: Class specific transition Minimal use to Alcohol only class Alcohol only to Alcohol-Popper use class Alcohol-Marijuana-Popper-Cocaine-ED to Alcohol-Popper use class Alcohol only class to Minimal class Alcohol-Popper class to Alcohol only class
Moved/stayed = 16/324 Moved/stayed = 187/841 Moved/stayed = 6/568 Moved/stayed = 36/821 Moved/stayed = 26/168
Age in years 1.07* (1.01-1.14) 0.99 (0.97-1.01) 1.02 (0.90-1.16) 1.01 (0.98-1.04) 1.03 (0.97-1.10)
Person of Color (Reference: White) 1.02 (0.36-2.91) 0.54* (0.34-0.87) - 0.73 (0.33-1.64) 1.22 (0.38-3.97)
HIV-Positive (Reference: Negative) 0.52 (0.18-1.56) 1.40 (0.99-1.97) 0.41 (0.08-2.25) 1.19 (0.61-2.35) 1.26 (0.51-3.12)
Increased Education Level 1.32 (0.89-1.96) 1.22** (1.07-1.38) 1.26 (0.86-3.34) 0.93 (0.74-1.16) 0.93 (0.63-1.37)
 

Note. Education level was treated as continuous variable