Table 3.
Potential impact 1 year after the implementation of the NEDF tax on overweight and obesity prevalence by sociodemographic characteristics using the Dynamic Childhood Growth and Obesity Modela.
| Overweight | Obesity | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without tax [% (95% CI)] | With tax [% (95% CI)] | Absolute difference (pp) | Without tax [% (95% CI)] | With tax [% (95% CI)] | Absolute difference (pp) | |
| Total | 21.2 (19,23) | 19.4 (18,22) | −1.7 (−0.80,−2.5) | 13.8 (12,15) | 13.4 (11,15) | −0.4 (−0.10,−0.60) |
| AGE GROUPS | ||||||
| School-aged children | 21.5 (19, 24) | 19.6 (17, 22) | −1.8 (−0.80, −2.7) | 13.6 (12, 16) | 13.1 (11, 15) | −0.4 (−0.10, −0.80) |
| Adolescent | 20.7 (18, 24) | 19.1 (16, 22) | −1.5 (−0.10, −3.0) | 14.1 (11, 18) | 13.9 (11, 18) | −0.2 (−0.10, −0.40) |
| SEX | ||||||
| Male | 20.6 (18, 24) | 18.7 (16, 22) | −1.9 (−0.50, −3.1) | 16.2 (13, 19) | 15.6 (13, 18) | −0.5 (−0.10, −0.90) |
| Female | 21.7 (19, 25) | 20.2 (17, 23) | −1.5 (−0.40, −2.4) | 11.4 (9.6, 13) | 11.2 (9, 13) | −0.2 (−0.10, −0.40) |
| SOCIOECONOMIC STATUSb | ||||||
| Low | 23.7 (20, 27) | 22.1 (19, 26) | −1.9 (−0.80, −2.9) | 11.3 (9, 14) | 10.8 (9, 13) | −0.6 (−0.01, −1.0) |
| Medium | 20.3 (17, 24) | 17.7 (15, 21) | −2.6 (−0.60, −4.6) | 13.7 (11, 17) | 13.2 (11, 16) | −0.5 (−0.12, −0.96) |
| High | 19.4 (16, 23) | 19.4 (16, 23) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 16.1 (13, 19) | 16.1 (13, 19) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
The Dynamic Childhood Growth and Obesity Model (DCGO) was used to obtain a no intervention (without tax) and a tax scenario (with tax) for body weight using a 1-year simulation time frame; the absolute difference is the expected impact of the NEDF tax on overweight and obesity.
Body weight simulated under the tax, assumed an average reduction of 5.1% in non-essential energy-dense food (NEDF) consumption at the individual level. To obtain differences by SES, we used the effects stratified as follows: 10.2, 5.8, and 0% for low, medium, and high SES, respectively (15).
BMI, body mass index; NEDF, non-essential energy-dense foods; SE, standard error; pp, percentage points.