Table 3.

Parameter estimates from modeling the mean trend of CVD incidence, mortality, and MIR by development factor between 1990 and 2017

HDIa level	Index	Parameter	Estimate	SEb	P value
Developing	Incidence	Intercept	904.51	19.50	< 0.001
		Time	−3.71	0.60	< 0.001
	Mortality	Intercept	381.14	11.24	< 0.001
		Time	−2.69	0.41	< 0.001
	MIR	Intercept	0.42	0.01	< 0.001
		Time	−0.002	0.0005	< 0.001
Developed	Incidence	Intercept	1282.77	40.40	< 0.001
		Time	−6.66	1.44	< 0.001
	Mortality	Intercept	276.58	10.96	< 0.001
		Time	−2.87	0.54	< 0.001
	MIR	Intercept	0.22	0.01	< 0.001
		Time	−0.001	0.0005	0.009
Total World	Incidence	Intercept	903.19	16.74	< 0.001
		Time	4.31	0.70	< 0.001
		(Time-6)	−5.84	0.67	< 0.001
	Mortality	Intercept	370.10	8.35	< 0.001
		Time	−3.82	0.23	< 0.001
	MIR	Intercept	0.42	0.009	< 0.001
		Time	−0.004	0.0003	< 0.001

^aHDI Human Development Index. ^bSE Standard error