Table 2. Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to reduce the new case detection (NCD) by 50% and by 90% at global level and in the three country groups.

		50% reduction					90% reduction
	NCD at time 0	Duration (years)	NCD		People requiring PEP (million)		Duration (years)	NCD		People requiring PEP (million)
			Mean	Rangea	Mean	Rangea		Mean	Rangea	Mean	Rangea
Global	228,970	5	107,520	48,970–152,290	20.6	11.9–29.9	22	21,400	4,800–44,690	40.2	19.8–64.8
Group 1b	188,430	5	86,780	47,360–131,970	16.8	10.3–24.3	22	17,770	4,570–36,180	32.9	17.3–52.0
Group 2c	30,450	6	13,680	4,730–24,070	3.2	1.3–5.1	21	3,030	260–7,080	5.4	1.9–9.5
Group 3d	10,080	6	4,520	1,470–8,080	1.0	0.4–1.7	21	990	60–2,310	1.8	0.6–3.1

a 95% confidence interval reflecting the stochastic variation of 1,000 runs

b India, Brazil, and Indonesia

c DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, Madagascar, Philippines, Nigeria, Mozambique, Ivory Coast, South Sudan, Egypt, Sudan, Angola, Comoros, Kiribati, Micronesia

d 88 remaining countries