Table 3. Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) per country to reduce the new case detection (NCD) by 50% and by 90% in the 22 WHO priority countries, ordered according to the NCD.

				50% reduction					90% reduction
	Country	Population at time 0 (million)	NCD at time 0	Duration (years)	NCD		People requiring PEP (thousands)		Duration (years)	NCD		People requiring PEP (thousands)
					Mean	Rangea	Mean	Rangea		Mean	Rangea	Mean	Rangea
GROUP 1	India	1,324.2	135,485	4	67,450	35,570–104,700	9,920	5,550–14,900	22	12,850	2,000–28,490	22,270	9,710–37,490
	Brazil	207.7	36,093	6	15,960	11,630–21,520	4,410	3,290–5,550	20	3,540	1,970–5,570	7,420	5,250–9,890
	Indonesia	261.1	16,826	7	7,760	5,460–10,230	1,830	1,370–2,290	25	1,580	9,10–2,690	3,180	2,210–4,140
GROUP 2	DR Congo	78.7	3,742	5	1,810	990–2,730	410	240–600	19	350	90–670	750	400–1,160
	Ethiopia	102.4	3,692	6	1,730	470–3,040	360	100–610	22	360	0–840	640	160–1,160
	Nepal	29.0	3,054	4	1,450	380–2,850	220	80–380	19	280	0–890	450	110–900
	Bangladesh	163.0	3,000	7	1,400	870–1,970	450	310–600	23	290	100–510	710	445–1,020
	Myanmar	528.9	2,609	6	1,220	330–2,150	260	70–430	22	250	0–590	450	110–820
	Tanzania	55.6	2,047	6	960	260–1,670	200	60–340	22	200	0–470	360	90–650
	Sri Lanka	21.2	1,977	4	940	250–1,840	150	60–250	19	197	0–580	290	70–590
	Madagascar	24.9	1,780	6	840	220–1,470	180	50–290	22	170	0–410	310	80–560
	Philippines	103.3	1,721	6	810	220–1,420	170	50–280	22	170	0–390	300	80–540
	Nigeria	186.0	1,362	6	640	170–1,130	140	40–250	22	130	0–310	240	60–430
	Mozambique	28.8	1,289	6	610	160–1,070	130	40–220	22	120	0–290	230	60–410
	Ivory Coast	23.7	895	5	430	240–650	100	60–150	19	85	20–160	180	100–280
	South Sudan	12.2	691	6	330	90–570	70	20–120	22	65	0–160	120	30–220
	Egypt	95.7	651	6	310	80–540	70	20–110	22	60	0–150	120	30–210
	Sudan	39.6	624	6	290	80–520	60	20–110	22	60	0–140	110	30–200
	Angola	28.8	619	6	290	80–510	60	20–110	22	60	0–140	110	30–200
	Comoros	0.8	310	4	150	80–230	30	10–40	22	30	10–70	60	30–90
	Kiribati	0.1	218	7	100	60–140	40	20–50	23	20	10–40	60	40–80
	Micronesia	1.0	169	4	80	50–130	20	10–30	22	10	0–40	30	20–50

a 95% confidence interval reflecting the stochastic variation of 1,000 runs