Table 4. Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to reduce the new case detection (NCD) by 50% and by 90% in high and low-endemic states in India, Brazil and Indonesia.
| 50% reduction | 90% reduction | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | NCD at time 0 | Duration (years) | NCD | People requiring PEP (million) | Duration (years) | NCD | People requiring PEP (million) | |||||
| Mean | Rangea | Mean | Rangea | Mean | Rangea | Mean | Rangea | |||||
| India | High | 107,097 | 5 | 47,660 | 23,650–73,580 | 9.1 | 5.3–13.4 | 22 | 10,700 | 2,000–21,930 | 18.0 | 8.8–29.1 |
| Low | 28,388 | 4 | 13,520 | 3,530–26,480 | 2.0 | 0.7–3.6 | 20 | 2,490 | 0–6,810 | 4.3 | 1.0–8.5 | |
| Brazil | High | 28,749 | 6 | 12,950 | 9,910–16,480 | 4.1 | 3.3–5.0 | 21 | 2,710 | 1,550–3,920 | 7.9 | 5.8–10.0 |
| Low | 7,344 | 5 | 3,650 | 2,010–5,540 | 1.6 | 0.9–2.3 | 19 | 720 | 180–1,370 | 3.3 | 1.7–5.1 | |
| Indonesia | High | 14,642 | 7 | 6,820 | 5,260–8,500 | 1.6 | 1.3–1.9 | 25 | 1,420 | 840–2,040 | 2.8 | 2.1–3.5 |
| Low | 2,214 | 6 | 1,040 | 280–1,900 | 0.2 | 0.1–0.4 | 22 | 210 | 0–510 | 0.4 | 0.1–0.7 | |
a 95% confidence interval reflecting the stochastic variation of 1,000 runs