Table 5. Sensitivity analysis.
| New case detection (proportion) | Cumulative number of people requiring PEP (proportion) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0yrs a | 5yrs a | 10yrs a | 15yrs a | 20yrs a | 25yrs a | 1-5yrsa | 1-10yrsa | 1-15yrsa | 1-20yrsa | 1-25yrsa | |
| Main results b | 280,066 | 107,520 | 63,550 | 39,490 | 25,150 | 16,750 | 20,548,000 | 29,926,000 | 35,554,000 | 39,145,000 | 41,520,000 |
| SDR effectiveness 50% for all contacts | 0 | +200 (+0.2%) | +130 (+0.2%) | -100 (-0.3%) | +240 (+0.1%) | +100 (+0.6%) | +15,000 (+0.1%) | +43,000 (+0.1%) | +83,000 (+0.2%) | +103,000 (+0.3%) | +111,000 (+0.3%) |
| PB infectivity 0.1 | 0 | -280 (-0.3%) | -2,170 (-3.4%) | -1190 (-4.2%) | -240 (-1.0%) | -140 (-0.8%) | -199,000 (-1.0%) | -396,000 (-1.3%) | -510,000 (-1.4%) | -584,000 (-1.5%) | -611,000 (-1.5%) |
| PB infectivity 0.2 | 0 | -910 (-0.8%) | -2,640 (-4.2%) | -1,640 (-4.2%) | -600 (-2.4%) | -620 (-3.7%) | -144,000 (-0.7%) | -455,000 (-1.5%) | -646,000 (-1.8%) | -797,000 (-2.0%) | -886,000 (-2.1%) |
a Years since start PEP
b Assumptions: SDR effectiveness 50% in household contacts and 70% in other contacts; PB not infectious