Table 1. Performance measures of the forecasts.
Three-day forecast | Seven-day forecast | Fourteen-day forecast | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | Forecast on | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz |
March 16 | 25.01 | 136.05 | 17.73 | 92.38 | 310.29 | 27.38 | 321.40 | 632.94 | 187.56 | |
March 18 | 42.71 | 127.26 | 30.59 | 123.52 | 256.38 | 100.44 | 372.73 | 459.71 | 386.97 | |
March 20 | 49.88 | 64.56 | 102.62 | 104.56 | 149.52 | 225.19 | 291.22 | 244.38 | 610.40 | |
March 22 | 22.62 | 77.86 | 111.32 | 63.52 | 124.94 | 259.30 | 164.29 | 150.28 | 525.21 | |
Average | 35.06 | 101.43 | 65.57 | 95.99 | 210.28 | 153.07 | 287.41 | 371.83 | 427.54 | |
Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | ||
MAPE | March 16 | 1.13 | 5.83 | 0.76 | 3.24 | 11.06 | 0.97 | 8.96 | 18.43 | 5.09 |
March 18 | 1.56 | 4.75 | 1.14 | 3.87 | 8.18 | 3.14 | 9.93 | 12.67 | 10.21 | |
March 20 | 1.64 | 2.11 | 3.38 | 3.03 | 4.34 | 6.52 | 7.51 | 6.45 | 15.76 | |
March 22 | 0.66 | 2.31 | 3.30 | 1.71 | 3.42 | 7.02 | 4.17 | 3.93 | 13.41 | |
Average | 1.25 | 3.75 | 2.14 | 2.96 | 6.75 | 4.41 | 7.64 | 10.37 | 11.12 | |
Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | Harvey | Logistic | Gompertz | ||
RMSE | March 16 | 26.72 | 155.82 | 22.34 | 116.30 | 359.17 | 36.65 | 423.22 | 729.36 | 279.11 |
March 18 | 51.59 | 133.08 | 32.58 | 149.67 | 289.12 | 126.01 | 473.91 | 514.70 | 516.53 | |
March 20 | 53.46 | 72.34 | 108.36 | 124.43 | 169.85 | 263.69 | 367.20 | 268.43 | 761.14 | |
March 22 | 27.08 | 82.37 | 122.34 | 77.34 | 135.10 | 300.21 | 213.80 | 158.70 | 636.35 | |
Average | 39.71 | 110.90 | 71.41 | 116.94 | 238.31 | 181.64 | 369.53 | 417.80 | 548.28 |