Table 3.
Predictive values |
Distribution of test outcomes among 10 000 people tested |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PPV | NPV | True positive | False positive | True negative | False negative | |
5% likelihood of testing positive | ||||||
80% sensitivity, 97% specificity | 58% | 99% | 400 | 285* | 9215 | 100 |
80% sensitivity, 98% specificity | 68% | 99% | 400 | 190* | 9310 | 100 |
80% sensitivity, 99% specificity | 81% | 99% | 400 | 95* | 9405 | 100 |
90% sensitivity, 99% specificity | 83% | 99% | 450 | 95* | 9405 | 50 |
10% likelihood of testing positive | ||||||
80% sensitivity, 97% specificity | 75% | 98% | 800 | 270* | 8730 | 200 |
80% sensitivity, 98% specificity | 82% | 98% | 800 | 180* | 8820 | 200 |
80% sensitivity, 99% specificity | 90% | 98% | 800 | 90 | 8910 | 200 |
90% sensitivity, 99% specificity | 91% | 99% | 900 | 90 | 8910 | 100 |
People at higher risk of acquiring or transmitting COVID-19 than the general population such as health-care workers, care home workers, and first responders. NPV=negative predictive value. PPV=positive predictive value.
Mitigation strategy is to confirm positives.