Table 3.

Simplified multivariable logistic regression model based on predictors selected by a backward stepwise algorithm

Predictors	Regression coefficients	SE	OR (95% CI)	P value
Sex
Women			Reference category
Men	0.744	0.112	2.10 (1.69 to 2.62)	<0.001
Age (years)
<40			Reference category
40–49	1.215	0.464	3.37 (1.36 to 8.37)	0.009
50–59	2.459	0.414	11.69 (5.20 to 26.30)	<0.001
60–69	3.388	0.398	29.59 (13.56 to 64.59)	<0.001
70–79	4.082	0.397	59.27 (27.22 to 129.05)	<0.001
80–89	4.700	0.399	109.93 (50.31 to 240.20)	<0.001
90+	5.302	0.427	200.66 (86.84 to 463.63)	<0.001
Morbidity level*
1-point increase	0.448	0.049	1.56 (1.42 to 1.72)	<0.001
Intercept	−6.453	0.386		<0.001

Overall predictive power: AUC (95% CI): 0.893 (0.879 to 0.907); sensitivity: 85.8% and specificity: 80.3%.

*One point for each comorbidity: chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, recent history of cancer (≤5 years), chronic heart failure, acid-related disorders and diabetes mellitus (maximum of 4 points per person; additional points were not considered due to a low prevalence in our cohort).