Figure 2. Projected Mean Changes in Global Cognition, Executive Function, and Memory Over Time by Sex.

Participant-specific (conditional) projected values of cognition were calculated for a 70-year-old Black participant (woman vs man) with the following values of all covariates at or before first cognitive assessment: Northern Manhattan Study cohort, eighth grade or lower education, 0 alcoholic drinks per week, nonsmoking, body mass index of 27.1 (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), waist circumference (96.0 cm), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (123.8 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0259]) and glucose (97.3 mg/dL [to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0555]), no history of atrial fibrillation, no hypertension treatment, and a baseline systolic blood pressure (BP) of 150 mm Hg that increases by 1 mm each year.

Random effects for this projection were set to zero. Linear mixed-effects models included time since first cognitive assessment and baseline values (measured before or at time of first cognitive assessment) of sex, age, race, cohort study, years of school, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, body mass index, waist circumference, physical activity, cumulative mean systolic BP, hypertension treatment, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, history of atrial fibrillation, age × follow-up time, sex × follow-up time, race × follow-up time, cumulative mean systolic BP × follow-up time, and hypertension treatment × follow-up time.