Fig. 4.

Observed and estimated number of daily new confirmed infections. The daily counts ΔY(t) (points) are presented together with the estimated expected daily new counts from our Poisson regression model (continuous line). Colors are again representative of countries (following the legend in Fig. 2). Furthermore, 95% prediction intervals are presented based on 10,000 simulations assuming multivariate normality of the maximum-likelihood estimates of $\widehat{{\mathrm{\alpha }}_{\mathrm{i}}}$