Table 5.
Simplified score to predict 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the derivation cohort: sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values for the different scores (0–30) in the derivation cohort
| Score | Participants | Sen (%) | Spe (%) | +LR | 1/-LR | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | ||
| Total | Dying within 30 days | ||||||||
| N | % | ||||||||
| 0 | 48 | 1 | 2.1 | 100 | 0 | 1 | – | 25.3 | – |
| 1 | 139 | 0 | 0.0 | 99.9 | 1.9 | 1.018 | 15.900 | 25.6 | 97.9 |
| 2 | 193 | 3 | 1.6 | 99.9 | 7.4 | 1.079 | 62.940 | 26.7 | 99.5 |
| 3 | 215 | 10 | 4.7 | 99.5 | 15.0 | 1.171 | 31.810 | 28.4 | 98.9 |
| 4 | 230 | 11 | 4.8 | 98.4 | 23.2 | 1.280 | 14.040 | 30.2 | 97.6 |
| 5 | 254 | 16 | 6.3 | 97.1 | 31.9 | 1.425 | 10.830 | 32.5 | 97.0 |
| 6 | 235 | 25 | 10.6 | 95.2 | 41.4 | 1.623 | 8.567 | 33.5 | 96.2 |
| 7 | 237 | 32 | 13.5 | 92.2 | 49.7 | 1.835 | 6.398 | 38.3 | 95. |
| 8 | 200 | 39 | 19.5 | 88.5 | 57.9 | 2.102 | 5.017 | 41.6 | 93.7 |
| 9 | 191 | 53 | 27.7 | 83.9 | 64.3 | 2.351 | 3.986 | 44.3 | 92.2 |
| 10 | 136 | 39 | 28.7 | 77.6 | 69.8 | 2.573 | 3.120 | 46.5 | 90.2 |
| 11 | 133 | 45 | 33.8 | 73.0 | 73.0 | 2.776 | 2.732 | 48.4 | 89.0 |
| 12 | 94 | 36 | 38.3 | 67.7 | 77.2 | 2.971 | 2.392 | 50.1 | 87.6 |
| 13 | 91 | 40 | 44.0 | 63.5 | 79.5 | 3.099 | 2.178 | 51.2 | 86.6 |
| 14 | 75 | 32 | 42.7 | 58.8 | 81.5 | 3.185 | 1.978 | 51.9 | 85.4 |
| 15 | 80 | 32 | 40.0 | 55.0 | 83.3 | 3.286 | 1.850 | 52.6 | 84.5 |
| 16 | 83 | 36 | 43.4 | 51.2 | 85.2 | 3.456 | 1.747 | 53.9 | 83.8 |
| 17 | 123 | 48 | 39.0 | 47.0 | 87.0 | 3.628 | 1.642 | 55.1 | 82.9 |
| 18 | 97 | 51 | 52.6 | 41.3 | 90.0 | 4.149 | 1.535 | 58.4 | 81.9 |
| 19 | 104 | 55 | 52.9 | 35.3 | 91.9 | 4.346 | 1.421 | 59.5 | 80.8 |
| 20 | 96 | 50 | 52.1 | 28.9 | 93.8 | 4.671 | 1.319 | 61.3 | 79.6 |
| 21 | 74 | 51 | 68.9 | 23.0 | 95.7 | 5.287 | 1.242 | 64.1 | 78.6 |
| 22 | 44 | 24 | 54.5 | 17.0 | 96.6 | 4.948 | 1.163 | 62.6 | 77.5 |
| 23 | 37 | 23 | 62.2 | 14.1 | 97.4 | 5.373 | 1.134 | 64.5 | 77.0 |
| 24 | 33 | 20 | 60.6 | 11.4 | 97.9 | 5.513 | 1.106 | 65.1 | 76.6 |
| 25 | 23 | 14 | 60.9 | 9.1 | 98.4 | 5.835 | 1.083 | 66.4 | 76.2 |
| 26 | 33 | 17 | 51.5 | 7.4 | 98.8 | 6.206 | 1.067 | 67.7 | 75.9 |
| 27 | 25 | 14 | 56.0 | 5.4 | 99.4 | 9.710 | 1.051 | 76.7 | 75.7 |
| 28 | 20 | 19 | 95.0 | 3.8 | 99.9 | 31.520 | 1.038 | 91.4 | 75.4 |
| 29 | 9 | 7 | 77.8 | 1.5 | 99.9 | 19.210 | 1.015 | 86.7 | 75.0 |
| 30 | 6 | 6 | 100 | 0.7 | 100 | – | 1.007 | 100 | 74.9 |
The number of individuals in different risk categories was low (0–2 points; 380 (11.3%)), medium (3–5 points; 699 (20.8%)), high (6–8 points; 672 (20.0%)) and very high (9–30 points; 1607 (47.9%)).
-LR, negative likelihood ratio; +LR, positive likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sen, sensitivity; Spe, specificity.