Figure 1.

Predicting COVID-19 incidence at the census tract level. Steps involved in the disaggregation of zip-level COVID-19 community incidence data (observed data) to census tract estimates (predicted data) using the areal interpolation toolset in Esri’s ArcGIS Pro. (A) Observed data provided by the county: cases per 10,000 population at the zip code level. (B) Transform zip code level data to a prediction surface by using areal interpolation techniques. (C) Use the newly created prediction surface to estimate prevalence at the census tract level.