Figure 1.

End-of-outbreak probabilities for four coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case clusters in Japan.

Each subfigure begins on the last date of onset within the cluster. All plots assume $R_{\text{e}}=0.5$ and $k$ = 0.25. Lines are median values and shaded areas are 95% credible intervals (CrI) for the datasets. Purple represents the datasets including only reported dates of onset; indigo represents the datasets including imputed dates of onset; yellow represents the datasets accounting for 20% underascertainment of cases; green represents the datasets accounting for 50% underascertainment of cases. The horizontal line represents the threshold for 5% probability of failure of the model. Cumulative case counts over time for each cluster are shown in the inset figures.