Table 3.

Length of the observation period in days from last date of report of a case to estimated end of transmission for four coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case clusters in Japan.

Cluster			A	B	C	D
Parameters	Re	k	Probability threshold (5%)
Reported onsets	0.5	0.11	23	13	22		10
		0.25	23	13	22		10
		0.58	23	13	22		10
	1.5	0.11	27	17	26		14
		0.25	27	17	26		14
		0.58	27	17	26		14
	3.0	0.11	29	20	29		17
		0.25	29	20	28		17
		0.58	29	20	28		17
Imputed onsets	0.5	0.11	23	14	22		17
		0.25	23	14	22		17
		0.58	23	14	22		17
	1.5	0.11	27	18	26		21
		0.25	27	18	26		21
		0.58	27	18	26		22
	3.0	0.11	30	21	29		24
		0.25	29	21	29		24
		0.58	29	21	29		24
20% ascertainment	0.5	0.11	30	22	30		28
		0.25	30	22	30		28
		0.58	30	22	31		28
	1.5	0.11	35	27	35		33
		0.25	35	26	35		32
		0.58	34	26	35		32
	3.0	0.11	–	–	–		–
		0.25	38	29	38		35
		0.58	37	29	37		34

Cluster A: fitness gyms cluster; Cluster B: university parties cluster; Cluster C: senior care facility; Cluster D: cancer center cluster. Observation days are reported relative to the last date of report of a case in the cluster (day 0). Cells with ‘– ‘did not reach the proscribed threshold probability within the 42-day period analyzed.