Table 3.
Comparison of the AUCs of included prediction models.
| Prediction model | 30-day mortality (AUC, 95% CI) |
Difference with RISE UP (p value)a |
14-day mortality (AUC, 95% CI) |
Difference with RISE UP (p value)a |
Composite endpoint (mortality and/or MCU/ICU admission) (AUC, 95% CI) |
Difference with RISE UP (p value)a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISE UP | 0.83 (0.79–0.88) | Reference | 0.83 (0.79–0.88) | Reference | 0.79 (0.75–0.84) | Reference |
| 4C mortality score | 0.84 (0.79–0.88) | .914 | 0.83 (0.79–0.88) | .926 | 0.77 (0.72–0.82) | .170 |
| CURB-65 | 0.75 (0.70–0.80) | <.001 | 0.75 (0.70–0.81) | .005 | 0.68 (0.62–0.73) | <.001 |
| MEWS | 0.64 (0.58–0.70) | <.001 | 0.62 (0.56–0.69) | <.001 | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | .037 |
| REMS | 0.73 (0.68–0.78) | <.001 | 0.74 (0.69–0.79) | .001 | 0.72 (0.66–0.77) | <.001 |
| abbMEDS | 0.75 (0.70–0.81) | <.001 | 0.75 (0.69–0.81) | .003 | 0.71 (0.66–0.76) | <.001 |
| SOFA | 0.72 (0.67–0.78) | <.001 | 0.72 (0.65–0.78) | <.001 | 0.76 (0.71–0.81) | .200 |
| APACHE II | 0.71 (0.65–0.78) | <.001 | 0.73 (0.67–0.79) | .004 | 0.69 (0.63–0.74) | <.001 |
| CALL score | 0.76 (0.71–0.81) | .002 | 0.76 (0.70–0.81) | .012 | 0.70 (0.65–0.75) | <.001 |
| ACP index | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) | <.001 | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) | <.001 | 0.66 (0.61–0.72) | <.001 |
| Host risk factor score | 0.64 (0.57–0.70) | <.001 | 0.62 (0.56–0.69) | <.001 | 0.63 (0.57–0.68) | <.001 |
4C: Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium; abbMEDS: abbreviated Mortality Emergency Department Sepsis; ACP: age C-reactive protein; APACHE II: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II; AUC: area under the curve; CALL: Comorbidity Age Lymphocyte LDH; CI: confidence interval; CURB-65: Confusion Urea Respiration Blood pressure; ICU: intensive care unit; MCU: medium care unit; MEWS: Modified Early Warning Score; REMS: Rapid Emergency Medicine Score; RISE UP: Risk Stratification in the Emergency Department in Acutely Ill Older Patients; SOFA: Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment.
aComparison of the AUC of the prediction model with the AUC of the RISE UP score.