Table 2. Estimates for the fixed parameters of compartmental model for forecasting regional epidemics of coronavirus disease, United States.
| Parameter | Estimate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| S0 | 19,216,182* | US Census Bureau (13) |
| I0 | 1 | Assumption |
| n | 0† | Assumption |
| mb | 0.1 | Assumption |
| ρE | 1.1 | Arons et al. (14) |
| ρA | 0.9 | Nguyen et al. (15) |
| kL | 0.94/d | Lauer et al. (12) |
| kQ | 0.0038/d | Assumption |
| jQ | 0.4/d | Assumption |
| fA | 0.44 | (16,17) |
| fH | 0.054 | Perez-Saez et al. (18) |
| fR | 0.79 | Richardson et al. (19) |
| cA | 0.26/d | Sakurai et al. (17) |
| cI | 0.12/d | Wölfel et al. (20) |
| cH | 0.17/d | Richardson et al. (19) |
*All estimates listed in this table are considered to apply to all regions of interest except for n, the number of distinct social distancing periods after an initial social distancing period, and S0, the region-specific initial number of susceptible persons. The value given here for S0 is the US Census Bureau estimated total population of the New York City metropolitan statistical area. †n = 0, unless stated otherwise.