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. 2021 Feb 19;18(4):2006. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18042006
Probability Calculation Prior Probability Conditional Probability
P (S0) P (E0 = P) = 0.40, P (E0 = N) = 0.60
P (M0 = T) = 0.90, P (M0 = F) = 0.10
P (S0 = T|E0 = P, M0 = T) = 0.65
P (S0 = T|E0 = P, M0 = F) = 0.70
P (S0 = T|E0 = N, M0 = T) = 0.68
P (S0 = T|E0 = N, M0 = F) = 0.75
P (S1) P (E1 = P) = 0.32, P (E1 = N) = 0.68
P (M1 = T) = 0.75, P (M1 = F) = 0.25
P (S1 = T| S0 = T, E1 = P, M1 = T) = 0.70
P (S1 = T| S0 = T, E1 = P, M1 = F) = 0.80
P (S1 = T| S0 = T, E1 = N, M1 = T) = 0.80
P (S1 = T| S0 = T, E1 = N, M1 = F) = 0.50
P (S1 = T| S0 = F, E1 = P, M1 = T) = 0.75
P (S1 = T| S0 = F, E1 = P, M1 = F) = 0.60
P (S1 = T| S0 = F, E1 = N, M1 = T) = 0.70
P (S1 = T| S0 = F, E1 = N, M1 = F) = 0.65
P (S2) P (E2 = P) = 0.40, P (E2 = N) = 0.60
P (M2 = T) = 0.85, P (M2 = F) = 0.15
P (S2 = T| S1 = T, E2 = P, M2 = T) = 0.80
P (S2 = T| S1 = T, E2 = P, M2 = F) = 0.85
P (S2 = T| S1 = T, E2 = N, M2 = T) = 0.76
P (S2 = T| S1 = T, E2 = N, M2 = F) = 0.73
P (S2 = T| S1 = F, E2 = P, M2 = T) = 0.54
P (S2 = T| S1 = F, E2 = P, M2 = F) = 0.64
P (S2 = T| S1 = F, E2 = N, M2 = T) = 0.70
P (S2 = T| S1 = F, E2 = N, M2 = F) = 0.72
P (S3) / P (S3 = T|S2 = T) = 0.25
P (S3 = T|S2 = F) = 0.80
P (S4) P (E4 = P) = 0.30, P (E4 = N) = 0.70
P (M4 = T) = 0.85, P (M4 = F) = 0.15
P (S4 = T| S2 = T, E4 = P, M4 = T) = 0.78
P (S4 = T| S2 = T, E4 = P, M4 = F) = 0.72
P (S4 = T| S2 = T, E4 = N, M4 = T) = 0.80
P (S4 = T| S2 = T, E4 = N, M4 = F) = 0.65
P (S4 = T| S2 = F, E4 = P, M4 = T) = 0.70
P (S4 = T| S2 = F, E4 = P, M4 = F) = 0.60
P (S4 = T| S2 = F, E4 = N, M4 = T) = 0.75
P (S4 = T| S2 = F, E4 = N, M4 = F) = 0.80
P (S5) / P (S5 = T|S4 = T) = 0.60
P (S5 = T|S4 = F) = 0.60
P (S6) P (E6 = P) = 0.45, P (E6 = N) = 0.55
P (M6 = T) = 0.88, P (M6 = F) = 0.12
P (S6 = T| S4 = T, E6 = P, M6 = T) = 0.79
P (S6 = T| S4 = T, E6 = P, M6 = F) = 0.75
P (S6 = T| S4 = T, E6 = N, M6 = T) = 0.80
P (S6 = T| S4 = T, E6 = N, M6 = F) = 0.85
P (S6 = F| S4 = F, E6 = P, M6 = T) = 0.78
P (S6 = T| S4 = F, E6 = P, M6 = F) = 0.90
P (S6 = T| S4 = F, E6 = N, M6 = T) = 0.80
P (S6 = T| S4 = F, E6 = N, M6 = F) = 0.82
P (S7) P (E7 = P) = 0.65, P (E7 = N) = 0.35
P (M7 = T) = 0.72, P (M7 = F) = 0.28
P (S7 = T| S6 = T, E7 = P, M7 = T) = 0.78
P (S7 = T| S6 = T, E7 = P, M7 = F) = 0.85
P (S7 = T| S6 = T, E7 = N, M7 = T) = 0.90
P (S7 = T| S6 = T, E7 = N, M7 = F) = 0.93
P (S7 = T| S6 = F, E7 = P, M7 = T) = 0.84
P (S7 = T| S6 = F, E7 = P, M7 = F) = 0.80
P (S7 = T| S6 = F, E7 = N, M7 = T) = 0.81
P (S7 = T| S6 = F, E7 = N, M7 = F) = 0.87
P (S8) / P (S5 = T|S4 = T) = 0.90
P (S5 = T|S4 = F) = 0.85