Table 2.

Summary of modelled outcomes of Covid-19 learning loss shocks and mitigation scenarios.

	Grade 10 average cohort learning (PISA-like scale)	Equivalent years of learning ahead/behind of counterfactual in grade 10	Percent of in-school children in grade 10 learning zero	Percent of grade 10 cohort above PISA 400 (achieving minimum proficiency)	Percent of grade 10 cohort below PISA 200 (very low learners)
Counterfactual – no shock	213	N/A	43 %	7%	51 %
Shock reduces grade 3 learning by 1/3	175	−1.04	72%	3%	65 %
Shock reduces grade 3 learning by 1/2	157	−1.55	82%	2%	73 %
Shock reduces grade 3 learning by 1/3 + remediation	193	−0.55	61%	4%	58 %
Shock reduces grade 3 learning by 1/3 + remediation + instruction reorientation	259	1.27	16%	27 %	36 %