Table 2.
Distribution of acceptable model iterations (defined as R2 > 0.95 between reported and modeled daily cumulative case numbers and nonnegative R2 for daily case numbers) that were associated with a specific assumption for eight unknown or uncertain model input parameters. The boldface type in the table shows model input scenarios with the largest number of acceptable iterations
| Model input scenarios* | ||||||
| Model inputs | No. of acceptable iterations (average R2) | Best estimates (mean ± SD) | ||||
| Effective incubation period | 10 d | 11 d | 12 d | 13 d | 14 d | 11.9 ± 1.3 |
| 25 (0.95) | 30 (0.97) | 31 (0.98) | 31 (0.97) | 15 (0.96) | ||
| Effective subclinical infectious period | 2 d | 3 d | 4 d | 5 d | 4.2 ± 1.1 | |
| 14 (0.95) | 30 (0.97) | 1 (0.98) | 87 (0.97) | |||
| Asymptomatic/symptomatic emission scenarios† | A/S = 0.545 | A/S = 1.0 | 0.78 ± 0.23 | |||
| 64 (0.96) | 68 (0.98) | |||||
| Emission rate scenarios (aerosol/droplet ratio) | A/D = 0.3 | A/D = 2.4 | A/D = 1.0 | A/D = 1.3 ± 0.9‡ | ||
| 42 (0.97) | 50 (0.97) | 40 (0.97) | ||||
| Minimum close interaction time in the cabins | 8 h | 6 h | 11.9 ± 4.0 | |||
| 68 (0.97) | 64 (0.97) | |||||
| Effective reproduction no. for the index case | REff = 2 | REff = 3 | REff = 4 | REff = 5 | 3.9 ± 0.9 | |
| 11 (0.96) | 30 (0.97) | 53 (0.97) | 38 (0.97) | |||
| URT/LRT ID50 ratio scenarios | Ratio = 1 | Ratio = 10 | Ratio = 100 | 47.1 ± 46.9 | ||
| 35 (0.97) | 39 (0.97) | 58 (0.97) | ||||
| Infection control efficiency scenarios | Moderate | High | Moderate§ | |||
| 70 (0.97) | 62 (0.97) | |||||
*
Scenarios with no acceptable model iterations were omitted from this table.
†
Asymptomatic refers to both asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals.
‡
The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies emitted in form of inhalable aerosols (A) to large droplets (D).
§
Nonnumerical; thus, no number could be attributed as the mean value.