Table 3.

Population attributable fractions (PAF) for population counterfactuals of incident gout among weight change patterns across adulthood

Scenario†	PAF (%), 95% CI total population	PAF (%), 95% CI subpopulation#
1. From gaining to stable non-obese	11.5 (4.6–17.9)	36.4 (18.6–50.3)
2. From stable obese to stable non-obese	3.2 (0–6.3)	37.6 (6.0–58.7)
3. Total population to stable normal	32.9 (18.2–44.9)	42.8 (25.8–55.9)

Source: NHANES (2007–2014)

^†Adjusted for ethnicity, sex, age, current smoke (yes/no), annual household income, diabetes, hypertension, and alcohol consumption

From a younger age to an older age: scenario 1, if those who gained weight, instead remained non-obese; scenario 2, if those who maintained an obese BMI, instead lost to a non-obese BMI; scenario 3, if the total population had a normal BMI from young adulthood that was maintained through midlife

^#Scenario 1: subpopulation represents the gaining group; scenario 2: subpopulation represents the stable obese group; scenario 3: subpopulation represents the population whose BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²