Table 2.
References | Study setting, population, study year, pediatric ED LOS | Crowding measurement | Crowding measurement performance |
---|---|---|---|
Weiss et al26 | Jackson Memorial Hospital pediatric ED, Miami | Pediatric ED Overcrowding Scale (PEDOCS), a scale ranging from 0 to 200 (0, not busy; 40, busy; 80, extremely busy but not overcrowded; 120, overcrowded; 160, severely overcrowded; 200, dangerously overcrowded) | Spearman correlation 0.81 between PEDOCS and pediatric staff (nurse and physician) perception of crowding, as compared to NEDOCS Spearman correlation of 0.70 with pediatric staff perception of crowding |
32 225 patient visits/year (2002) | PEDOCS = 33.3 * 0.11 + 0.07*(patients in the waiting room) + 0.04*(total registered patients) | ||
February 5 to 25, 2002 | |||
Median LOS: 135 (IQR 120-330) minutes, longest LOS: 227 ± 189.4 (SD) | |||
Noel et al28 | North Hospital, Assistance Publique Hopitaux de Marseille pediatric ED | Linear model (SOTU-PED) to predict global hourly crowding perception | Correlation between global hourly crowding perception and SOTU-PED: 0.824 (P < .001) |
During model development period: mean LOS 160 (SD 13.1) minutes, median LOS 162 (IQR 152-169) minutes | SOTU-PED = 0.764 + 0.49 Census-H24 (number of admissions in the past 24 hours) + 0.496 Occ-Rate (occupancy rate) + 0.302 1-year infant (number of patients <1 year old) + 0.005 WT-Triage (waiting time for triage) + 0.002 WT-Med (waiting time for medical evaluation) | Prediction of global hourly crowding perception score >5 for SOTU-PED of 2 or greater, AUC: 0.957 (95% CI: 0.933-0.980), odds ratio: 51.88 (95% CI: 20.42-131.83), sensitivity 89.5% (95% CI: 0.79-0.95), specificity 85.9% (95% CI: 0.81-0.90), positive likelihood ratio: 8.16 (95% CI, 3.82-17.43), negative likelihood ratio: 0.157 (95% CI: 0.11-0.22), positive predictive value: 63.7% (95% CI: 60.9-66.4), and negative predictive value: 96.7% (95% CI: 94.3-98.7) | |
During model validation period: mean LOS 153 (SD 14.6) minutes, median LOS 152 (140-165) minutes | |||
36 000 patient visits/year (2016) | |||
November 25, 2016 to January 25, 2017 | |||
Ajmi et al30 | Regional University Hospital Center (CHRU), Lille, France, pediatric ED | Model of flow through the pediatric emergency department based on 3 primary stages: patient arrival and initial assessment, patient (re)orientation and treatment, and patient destinations | Three separate models were identified for summer, winter, and crisis periods (overcrowding) |
January 2011 to December 2012 | The model produced minimum and maximum average waiting times for patients as they progress through stages of care | ||
23 150 patient visits/year (2011) and 24 039/year (2012) | |||
Summer period waiting times: 30 minutes to 2:30 hours | |||
Winter period waiting times: 1 to 4 hours | |||
Crisis (crowding) period waiting times: up to 10 hours | |||
Chandoul et al33 | Regional University Hospital Center (CHRU), Lille, France, pediatric ED | Model of healthcare treatment load (burden of care provided to patients by medical staff) | Model could predict during a day when total healthcare treatment load was high (75% and 95% upper limits of distribution of healthcare treatment load) |
January 2011-December 2012 for model development, January-November 2013 for model testing | Model used distributions of patient lengths of stay from 1.186 patient presentations (complaints and conditions) as influenced by number of tests performed | ||
23 150 patient visits/year (2011) and 24 039/year (2012) | |||
Median LOS (included cases only): 132 (IQR 87-196) minutes |
Abbreviations: LOS, length of stay; IQR, interquartile range; SD, standard deviation; AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; SOTU-PED in French, Score Objectif de Tension dans les services d’Urgences pediatriques (English translation: quantitative scale for crowding in pediatric emergency department); NEDOCS, adult national emergency department overcrowding scale.