Exhibit 4.

Relationship of each individual significant variable with COVID-19 laCFR over a range of values. To obtain estimates, all other variables were set to their median value in the training data, and the banned religious gatherings variable was set to 0 (indicating religious gatherings were not banned in a county, which account for half of counties included, Appendix A1). Means are shown as solid line black, and 95% prediction intervals are shown as dotted black lines.