Table 6.
Minimum requirements during Exit Strategy proposed for two different epidemiological scenarios
| Exit Strategy I | Exit Strategy II | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Freedom following eradication scenario (see EU strategya) | Freedom following control scenario (see EU strategya) | ||
| Local containment of epidemic in small area, e.g. the past epidemics in the affected area in Czechia and Belgium | Countrywide spread of epidemic, large area, e.g. Estonia and Latvia | |||
| Screening Phase (SP): all samples negative | ||||
| Passive surveillance | Number of carcasses = 2% of hunting bag prior to ASF introduction (2% HB) | Test at least 1 carcass per 1,000 km2 per year (SP 1)b (baseline intensity) | ||
| Active surveillance | No specific requirements | Test all hunting bag for virus | ||
| Confirmation Phase (CP): all samples negative | ||||
| Passive surveillance | Number of carcasses = 2% of hunting bag prior to ASF introduction (2% HB) | Test at least 1, 2 or 6c carcasses per 1,000 km2 per year (CP1, CP2 and CP3, respectively)b (increased intensity) | ||
| Active surveillance | No specific requirements | Test all hunting bag for virus | ||
| Minimum monitoring periods | Combination of duration Screening Phase (phase A) with the adequate period for Confirmation Phase (phase B) can be seen in Figure 29 | Combination of duration monitoring period Screening Phase with the adequate period for Confirmation Phase can be seen in Figures 30–32. Example: To achieve a failure rate of maximum 2% (solid line) after 12 months applying Exit Strategy II's Screening Phase (including 1 carcass per 1,000 km2 per year) one may need to monitor further 11 months in the Confirmation Phase with 1 carcass per year and 1,000 km2 (Figure 30), 7 months with 2 carcasses (Figure 31), 3 months when collecting 6 carcasses (Figure 32) | ||
a
Annex III of the Strategic approach to the management of African Swine Fever for the EU (European Commission, 2015).
b
Carcass collection efforts assumed to be distributed in time and space.
c
The greater the intensity of carcass collection was chosen the shorter the monitoring period of the Confirmation Phase has to last.