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. 2021 Jan 29;115(3):269–280. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa193

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© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 1. — Temporal dynamics of O. volvulus microfilarial prevalence assuming a 1-y (2020) and 2-y (2020–2021) interruption to annual MDA with ivermectin due to COVID-19 and no mitigation strategies, predicted by (A–D) EPIONCHO-IBM and (E–H) ONCHOSIM. The pre-intervention (baseline) microfilarial prevalence in individuals ≥5 y of age is 50% (A, C, E, G) and 70% (B, D, F, H). Annual MDA occurs from 2000 to 2030 (early-start programmes; A, B, E, F) or from 2017 to 2030 (late-start programmes; C, D, G, H), assuming no treatment in 2020 only (red lines), no treatment in both 2020 and 2021 (violet lines) and no remedial strategies subsequently. The temporal microfilarial dynamics with no interruption in MDA are shown as green lines. The therapeutic coverage (of the total population) is assumed to be 65%, with the exception of 30% in 2021 following a 1-y interruption and 30% in 2022 following a 2-y interruption to MDA. The proportion of systematic non-participation is set to 5% throughout all simulations.