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. 2021 Jan 29;115(3):269–280. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa193

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© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 3. — Temporal dynamics of O. volvulus microfilarial prevalence predicted by (A–C) EPIONCHO-IBM and (D–F) ONCHOSIM with a 2-y (2020 and 2021) interruption in annual ivermectin MDA (2017–2030) due to COVID-19 and remedial biannual MDA. The pre-intervention (baseline) microfilarial prevalence (in individuals ≥5 y of age) is (A, D) 50%, (B, E) 60% and (C, F) 70%. Grey lines represent no interruption in MDA and black lines indicate no treatment in 2020 and 2021 but with 2 y of remedial biannual MDA in 2024 and 2025. The therapeutic coverage (of the total population) is assumed to be 65%, with the exception of 30% in 2022. The proportion of systematic non-participation is set to 5% throughout all simulations.