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. 2021 Jan 29;115(3):269–280. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa193

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© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 6. — Temporal dynamics of O. volvulus microfilarial prevalence predicted by (A–C) EPIONCHO-IBM and (D–F) ONCHOSIM during annual MDA with ivermectin, assuming a 1-y interruption (2014) due to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a 1-y interruption due to COVID-19 in 2020 and no remedial strategies. The pre-intervention (baseline) microfilarial prevalence in individuals ≥5 y of age is (A, D) 50%, (B, E) 60% and (C, F) 70%. The therapeutic coverage (of the total population) is assumed to be 25% in 2003 and 2004, 30% in 2005 and 2006, 50% in 2007 and 2008, 65% in 2009 to 2013, 30% in 2015 and 65% from 2016 onwards (motivated by the situation in West African countries that had experienced civil conflict and were affected by the Ebola epidemic), with the exception of 2021 (50%). Black and grey lines indicate, respectively, the microfilarial dynamics with and without an interruption due to COVID-19. The proportion of systematic non-participation is set to 5% throughout all simulations.