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. 2021 Jan 29;115(3):269–280. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/traa193

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© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 7. — Age- and sex-profiles of O. volvulus microfilarial (A–D) prevalence (%) and (E–H) mean intensity (mf/skin snip) predicted by (A, B, E, F) EPIONCHO-IBM and (C, D, G, H) ONCHOSIM assuming no interruption in MDA with ivermectin (A, C, E, G) and a 2-y interruption in MDA (B, D, F, H) in 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19. The pre-intervention (baseline) microfilarial prevalence is 70% in individuals ≥5 y of age and the age profiles for (A, C) prevalence and (E, G) intensity at baseline are shown in the figure insets. Annual MDA starts in 2017 and the profiles (solid lines for males and dashed lines for females) are shown for 2022 (black), 2023 (violet), 2024 (purple), 2025 (red) and 2026 (yellow). The therapeutic coverage (of the total population) is assumed to be 65%, with the exception of 30% in 2022 (B, D, F, H). The proportion of systematic non-participation is set to 5% throughout all simulations.