Table 1.
Comparison of observed and predicted deaths in Suzhou from January to June 2020
| Observed death | Predicted death (95% CI) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | February | March | April | May | June | January | February | March | April | May | June | |
| All-cause death | 4958 | 4464 | 4222 | 3940 | 3928 | 3636 | 5239 (4835, 5642) | 4828 (4335, 5320) | 4541 (3973, 5108) | 3807 (3173, 4441) | 3669 (2975, 4363) | 3284 (2535, 4033) |
| Circulation system | 1780 | 1616 | 1475 | 1402 | 1340 | 1200 | 1742 (1606, 1878) | 1621 (1483, 1804) | 1494 (1274, 1714) | 1189 (937, 1440) | 1136 (856, 1416) | 1002 (696, 1308) |
| Cerebrovascular | 1094 | 991 | 923 | 871 | 829 | 759 | 1107 (1016, 1197) | 998 (892, 1104) | 944 (824, 1063) | 768 (637, 899) | 739 (597, 881) | 668 (516, 820) |
| Cardiopathy | 647 | 587 | 512 | 497 | 466 | 408 | 611 (539, 648) | 606 (517, 694) | 529 (427, 631) | 412 (299, 526) | 389 (264, 513) | 323 (189, 457) |
| Respiratory system | 549 | 452 | 347 | 303 | 301 | 293 | 673 (573, 774) | 685 (568, 802) | 557 (425, 689) | 408 (263, 553) | 349 (192, 505) | 286 (118, 454) |
| Traffic accident | 68 | 46 | 61 | 58 | 86 | 75 | 95 (78, 113) | 63 (45, 81) | 80 (62, 99) | 74 (56, 93) | 86 (67, 105) | 67 (48, 86) |
| Endocrine & metabolic | 258 | 251 | 222 | 196 | 162 | 191 | 290 (252, 328) | 283 (240, 325) | 237 (191, 284) | 189 (138, 239) | 178 (125, 232) | 142 (85, 199) |