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. 2021 Feb 18;8:637580. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2021.637580

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Copyright © 2021 Srinivasan, Conlan, Easterling, Herrera, Dandapat, Veerasami, Ameni, Jindal, Raj, Wood, Juleff, Bakker, Vordermeier and Kapur.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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Scenario analysis for impact of BCG vaccination in an expanding dairy herd. We compare a baseline “control” scenario (with no vaccination) to the introduction of whole-herd vaccination at 1, 10, 20, 30, and 40 years which only provides direct protection (ε_s of 25%), and one with an additional reduction in infectiousness of vaccinates (ε_I of 36 and 49%). We compare the effect of vaccination in terms of % prevalence and cumulative cases averted with assumed initial (A,B) moderate prevalence of 5, 10, and 15% (rows), and (C,D) high prevalence of 20, 30, and 40%.