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. 2021 Mar 2:M20-6754. doi: 10.7326/M20-6754

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This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use for research, analyses, and text and data mining through PubMed Central. Acknowledgement of the original source shall include a notice similar to the following: "© 2020 American College of Physicians. Some rights reserved. This work permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited." These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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Appendix Figure 2. Calibration curves for predictions of severe illness or death in the next 1 day and 7 days. The points and 95% CIs show calibration by decile. Dashed lines indicate linear fit through the decile points. The dotted line shows the locally weighted smoothing (loess) curve through the predicted probabilities versus observed outcomes. Histograms of the distribution of predicted values are shown below the calibration plots. — The points and 95% CIs show calibration by decile. Dashed lines indicate linear fit through the decile points. The dotted line shows the locally weighted smoothing (loess) curve through the predicted probabilities versus observed outcomes. Histograms of the distribution of predicted values are shown below the calibration plots.