Table 3.

Sensitivity analysis excluding respondents with trajectory assignment probability <80% and excluding the last 12 months of claims data

Trajectory category and number	Excluding
	Respondents with trajectory assignment probabilities <80% (n=18 883)			Last 12 months of claims (n=20 234)
	N	Healthcare cost difference (US$) (95% CI)	Percent difference (95% CI)	N	Healthcare cost difference (US$) (95% CI)	Percent difference (95% CI)
Maintainers
1	3808	Referent	REF	3686	Referent	REF
8	4897	−1115 (−1703 to −528)	−13.2 (−20.1 to −6.2)	4964	−696 (−1089 to −303)	−11.6 (−18.2 to −5.1)
3	2088	−1269 (−1991 to −547)	−15.0 (−23.5 to −6.5)	2550	−947 (−1382 to −511)	−15.8 (−23.1 to −8.6)
Increasers
4	909	−1760 (−2690 to −831)	−20.8 (−31.7 to −9.8)	1098	−949 (−1536 to −362)	−15.9 (−25.7 to −6.1)
2	1943	−762 (−1529 to 6)	−9.0 (−18.0 to 0.1)	1839	−494 (−991 to 3)	−8.3 (−16.6 to 0.1)
Decreasers
6	1466	184 (−722 to 1091)	2.2 (−8.5 to 12.9)	1880	−246 (−754 to 262)	−4.1 (−12.6 to 4.4)
9	1774	−54 (−861 to 753)	−0.6 (−10.2 to 8.9)	1648	48 (−517 to 612)	−0.8 (−8.7 to 10.2)
5	438	−920 (−2014 to 174)	−10.9 (−23.8 to 2.1)	1030	−501 (−1078 to 75)	−8.4 (−18.0 to 1.3)
7	1560	−111 (−929 to 707)	−1.3 (−11.0 to 8.3)	1539	−182 (−711 to 346)	−3.0 (−11.9 to 5.8)

Healthcare cost differences after adjusting for age, sex, marital status, race/ethnicity, education attainment, smoking status, BMI at age 18, location of residence and television viewing status from RFQ (model 1). Based on two-part model —log link and Poisson distribution. Per cent difference calculated using recycled predictions. (Reference group: exclude trajectory assignment <80% US$8473/year; exclude last 12 months of life US$5976/year).

REF: Reference group is based on respondents that responded never, rarely, or <1 hour/week when asked how often they participated in moderate and vigorous activities in middle age (43–64 years).

RFQ, Risk Factor Questionnaire.