Figure 7.

After transitions, OFC ensembles can only predict the outcome to be delivered when a matched OFC ensemble had decoded the state accurately after reward delivery on the previous trial. a, Outcome-decoding accuracy of OFC ensembles when a matched ensemble recorded in the same sessions accurately (blue) or inaccurately (red) decoded the state on the previous trial, using the first 20 trials after block transitions. b, A parallel analysis using trials 21-40 after block transitions. The state-decoding epoch was always a 1500 ms epoch beginning 1500 ms after the initial reward delivery time stamp on the previous trial. c, d, Same analysis as a function of outcome-decoding ensemble size. All rewarded trials were included, except those in which the previous trial was itself not rewarded. *p < 0.01 comparing the estimated parameter values for the best fit of the two functions.