Table 2.
Primary and secondary outcomes—effect estimates according to age and clusters
| Weakly informative priorsa | Pessimistic priorsa | Optimistic priorsa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds ratio (95% CrI) | Probability of benefit | Odds ratio (95% CrI) | Probability of benefit | Odds ratio (95% CrI) | Probability of benefit | |
| Primary outcome | ||||||
| 90-day mortality | ||||||
| Age | ||||||
| All patients | 1 (0.87–1.14) | 47.2% | 1 (0.87–1.15) | 50.5% | 0.99 (0.86–1.14) | 53.8% |
| > 65 years | 0.83 (0.68–1) | 97.7% | 0.83 (0.68–1) | 97.7% | 0.82 (0.68–1) | 97.7% |
| ≤ 65 years | 1.26 (1.02–1.56) | 1.5% | 1.26 (1.02–1.56) | 1.5% | 1.26 (1.02–1.56) | 1.5% |
| Probability of lower OR in > 65 years | 99.8% | – | 99.8% | – | 99.8% | – |
| Cluster | ||||||
| All patients | 0.99 (0.85–1.15) | 55.8% | 0.99 (0.86–1.15) | 54.2% | 0.99 (0.85–1.14) | 57.3% |
| 1 | 0.86 (0.65–1.14) | 84.8% | 0.86 (0.64–1.15) | 84.6% | 0.86 (0.64–1.15) | 84.9% |
| 2 | 1.04 (0.87–1.24) | 33.4% | 1.04 (0.87–1.24) | 33.4% | 1.04 (0.87–1.24) | 33.4% |
| Probability of lower OR in cluster 1 | 86.4% | – | 86.3% | – | 86.6% | – |
| Mean difference (95% CrI) | Probability of MD > 0 | Mean difference (95% CrI) | Probability of MD > 0 | Mean difference (95% CrI) | Probability of MD > 0 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary outcomes | ||||||
| Alive. Coma- and delirium-free days | ||||||
| Age | ||||||
| All patients | 0.27 (− 0.25 to 0.8) | 84.4% | 0.12 (− 0.4 to 0.65) | 67.8% | 0.41 (− 0.11 to 0.93) | 94% |
| > 65 years | 0.9 (0–1.82) | 97.4% | 0.87 (− 0.02 to 1.79) | 97.1% | 0.92 (0.03–1.83) | 97.6% |
| ≤ 65 years | − 0.01 (− 0.79 to 0.74) | 48.8% | − 0.03 (− 0.81 to 0.73) | 46.7% | 0.01 (− 0.77 to 0.76) | 50.6% |
| Probability of higher MD in > 65 years | 93.4% | – | 93.2% | – | 93.7% | – |
| Cluster | ||||||
| All patients | 0.29 (− 0.28 to 0.84) | 84.2% | 0.12 (− 0.44 to 0.68) | 66.5% | 0.45 (− 0.12 to 1.01) | 94.2% |
| 1 |
0.64 (− 0.41 to 1.7 ) |
88.5% | 0.61 (− 0.43 to 1.68) | 87.2% | 0.68 (− 0.37 to 1.75) | 89.4% |
| 2 | 0.3 (− 0.48 to 1.06) | 77.3% | 0.28 (− 0.5 to 1.05) | 76.1% | 0.31 (− 0.46 to 1.08) | 78.5% |
| Probability of higher MD cluster 1 | 69.9% | – | 69.4% | – | 70.1% | – |
| Ventilator-free days | ||||||
| Age | ||||||
| All patients | 0.1 (− 0.46 to 0.66) | 64.3% | − 0.06 (− 0.62 to 0.5) | 41.8% | 0.27 (− 0.29 to 0.82) | 82.6% |
| > 65 years | 0.84 (− 0.14 to 1.88) | 95% | 0.81 (− 0.17 to 1.85) | 94.3% | 0.87 (− 0.12 to 1.88) | 95.5% |
| ≤ 65 years | − 0.33 (− 1.18 to 0.5) | 22.1% | − 0.35 (− 1.2 to 0.49) | 20.7% | − 0.31 (− 1.16 to 0.53) | 23.7% |
| Probability of higher MD in > 65 years | 96.2% | – | 95.9% | – | 96.5% | – |
| Cluster | ||||||
| All patients | 0.11 (− 0.49 to 0.71) | 63.8% | − 0.08 (− 0.67 to 0.51) | 39.9% | 0.29 (− 0.31 to 0.90) | 83.2% |
| 1 | 0.31 (− 0.82 to 1.45) | 70.2% | 0.28 (− 0.84 to 1.43) | 68.2% | 0.34 (− 0.78 to 1.49) | 72.4% |
| 2 | 0.10 (− 0.75 to 0.94) | 58.9% | 0.07 (− 0.76 to 0.92) | 56.8% | 0.12 (− 0.71 to 0.96) | 61.1% |
| Probability of higher MD cluster 1 | 61.4% | – | 60.9% | – | 62.2% | – |
Benefit indicates reduced risk of death (OR < 1.00)
Cluster 1 is predominantly operative patients and cluster 2 is non-operative patients
OR odds ratio, MD mean difference, CrI credible interval
aDifferent priors are described in the Supp Digital Content—eMethods