Table 1.
Summary of ARIMA modelling outcomes
| Estimated resident population | Theft and related offences | Property damage | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shop stealing | Other stealing | Motor vehicle theft | All property damage | ||||||||||||||
| March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | ||
| State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs) | |||||||||||||||||
| Estimable models (a) | − | 24 | 38 | 22 | 41 | ||||||||||||
| LGAs with increase (n significant) (b) | − | 4 (1) | 4 (0) | 2 (0) | 1 (0) | 15 (1) | 1 (0) | 2 (0) | 1 (0) | 13 (4) | 3 (0) | 3 (0) | 5 (0) | 20 (2) | 6 (0) | 6 (0) | 8 (0) |
| LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c) | − | 20 (3) | 20 (14) | 22 (14) | 23 (11) | 23 (4) | 37 (32) | 36 (24) | 37 (20) | 9 (0) | 19 (11) | 19 (5) | 17 (9) | 21 (1) | 35 (10) | 35 (10) | 33 (3) |
| Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d) | |||||||||||||||||
| Brisbane City Council | 1253982 | −11.5 | −46.7 | −37.9 | −31.2 | −4.0 | −43.0 | −48.4 | −44.1 | 11.5 | −26.1 | −31.8 | −34.6 | −4.5 | −21.0 | −17.6 | −15.3 |
| Gold Coast City Council | 620518 | −1.7 | −52.8 | −30.0 | −36.7 | −12.4 | −46.6 | −43.3 | −45.0 | 32.1 | −3.3 | −18.2 | −38.2 | −0.4 | −19.3 | −30.3 | −7.3 |
| Moreton Bay Regional Council | 469465 | −20.2 | −63.3 | −50.1 | −46.0 | −15.7 | −40.1 | −54.5 | −56.0 | 3.1 | −27.7 | −20.5 | −38.5 | −13.5 | −30.7 | −27.1 | −25.1 |
| Logan City Council | 334358 | 9.8 | −46.1 | −23.5 | −33.9 | −16.4 | −43.8 | −62.0 | −57.0 | 2.2 | −27.8 | −36.1 | −32.0 | 25.4 | −15.7 | −9.5 | −24.1 |
| Sunshine Coast Regional Council | 328428 | −10.7 | −65.7 | −45.9 | −45.9 | −4.9 | −38.3 | −42.2 | −40.0 | 23.7 | −11.9 | −10.1 | −17.5 | -9.7 | −34.7 | −22.7 | −17.8 |
| Ipswich City Council | 222307 | −12.8 | −51.2 | −60.3 | −28.4 | −15.5 | −48.6 | −63.7 | −58.6 | −16.3 | −46.1 | −29.0 | −39.0 | −13.9 | −23.5 | −42.8 | −18.7 |
| Townsville City Council | 195032 | −41.5 | −70.9 | −49.3 | −71.9 | −17.4 | −55.8 | −64.0 | −62.8 | N.R.E | −31.1 | −23.8 | −32.9 | −24.5 | |||
| Toowoomba Regional Council | 169008 | −9.5 | −40.7 | −44.8 | −26.8 | −13.8 | −35.5 | −32.6 | −21.7 | 20.9 | −35.4 | −9.5 | −12.4 | 21.3 | 0.6 | −19.5 | 0.5 |
| Cairns Regional Council | 166862 | −13.5 | −56.1 | −53.8 | −59.3 | 13.3 | −43.5 | −59.6 | −43.3 | -25.9 | −49.8 | −43.8 | −37.2 | −14.5 | −28.6 | −15.4 | −8.4 |
| Redland City Council | 158815 | −6.4 | −6.4 | −15.3 | −30.9 | −10.6 | −34.7 | −48.2 | −47.0 | -6.5 | −51.4 | −36.4 | −47.7 | 9.7 | −18.1 | −28.3 | −35.6 |
| Mackay Regional Council | 116763 | −28.7 | −50.6 | −70.8 | −36.5 | −12.1 | −46.7 | −49.4 | −45.4 | 5.0 | −28.5 | −44.1 | −44.1 | 33.6 | 1.6 | −8.5 | −21.6 |
| Fraser Coast Regional Council | 106712 | −13.9 | −31.5 | −40.4 | −66.9 | −4.3 | −38.4 | −44.0 | −28.1 | 25.5 | −53.6 | −17.5 | 3.1 | 35.4 | 6.8 | 16.5 | −23.1 |
| State-wide | 5130000 | −13.3 | −49.0 | −44.9 | −42.3 | −10.5 | −42.7 | −51.5 | −45.3 | −1.7 | −37.7 | −40.9 | −41.6 | −4.4 | −24.2 | −21.8 | −12.4 |
| Estimated Resident Population | Burglary | Fraud | Robbery | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Other | All fraud | Armed and unarmed | ||||||||||||||
| March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | March | April | May | June | ||
| State-wide summary (of 77 LGAs) | |||||||||||||||||
| Estimable models (a) | – | 23 | 25 | 13 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| LGAs with increase (n significant) (b) | -– | 15 (3) | 1 (0) | 0 (0) | 4 (1) | 21 (7) | 7 (0) | 4 (0) | 2 (0) | 2 (0) | 1 (0) | 1 (0) | 1 (1) | 3 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
| LGAs with decrease (n significant) (c) | -– | 8 (2) | 22 (19) | 23 (9) | 19 (8) | 4 (0) | 18 (8) | 21 (3) | 23 (5) | 11 (0) | 12 (0) | 12 (0) | 12 (0) | 5 (0) | 8 (6) | 8 (3) | 8 (4) |
| Key LGA Snapshot (% difference from forecast) (d) | |||||||||||||||||
| Brisbane City Council | 1253982 | −12.4 | −49.7 | −49.9 | −49.1 | 11.7 | −20.0 | −27.2 | −44.5 | −11.7 | −24.8 | 41.6 | −20.5 | 25.9 | −48.5 | −28.8 | −43.2 |
| Gold Coast City Council | 620518 | 50.9 | 0.5 | −39.7 | −33.8 | 54.9 | 27.5 | 9.8 | −8.0 | −24.6 | −8.3 | −38.3 | −18.9 | −14.3 | −28.6 | −32.2 | −53.6 |
| Moreton Bay Regional Council | 469465 | −5.7 | −19.6 | −37.5 | −37.0 | 25.9 | −21.2 | −16.1 | −29.5 | −31.5 | −50.8 | −29.4 | −29.0 | −23.2 | −28.4 | −48.8 | −23.2 |
| Logan City Council | 334358 | 5.0 | −23.5 | −51.9 | −38.4 | 26.1 | −3.4 | −9.2 | −17.1 | −7.9 | −14.1 | −17.7 | −3.8 | −13.8 | −61.2 | −22.4 | −0.9 |
| Sunshine Coast Regional Council | 328428 | 17.4 | −47.1 | −43.3 | −26.1 | 42.1 | 24.1 | −19.7 | 3.0 | −32.4 | −20.3 | -8.2 | −43.5 | N.R.E | |||
| Ipswich City Council | 222307 | −9.4 | −44.2 | −35.1 | −37.7 | 8.1 | −45.9 | −33.2 | −55.8 | −27.1 | −6.4 | −24.4 | −43.3 | −14.9 | −53.6 | −69.1 | −38.1 |
| Townsville City Council | 195032 | N.R.E | 21.6 | −44.3 | −52.7 | −61.2 | 98.1 | −65.0 | −44.4 | -2.2 | N.R.E | ||||||
| Toowoomba Regional Council | 169008 | 6.0 | −56.3 | −55.5 | −35.0 | -1.1 | −19.7 | −19.7 | -4.5 | −47.6 | 38.5 | −59.2 | 163.5 | N.R.E | |||
| Cairns Regional Council | 166862 | −37.6 | −48.8 | −56.8 | −46.7 | 21.6 | −4.0 | −37.8 | −64.4 | −30.0 | −15.4 | −18.4 | −26.1 | 39.0 | −12.2 | −78.1 | −12.2 |
| Redland City Council | 158815 | 59.7 | −34.2 | −6.1 | −21.7 | 77.3 | 23.6 | −43.8 | −43.8 | 0.2 | −2.3 | −61.0 | −30.7 | N.R.E | |||
| Mackay Regional Council | 116763 | 22.2 | −23.0 | −53.2 | −30.8 | 3.7 | −10.2 | −70.3 | −52.2 | N.R.E | N.R.E | ||||||
| Fraser Coast Regional Council | 106712 | 104.8 | −23.0 | −32.2 | −7.2 | 10.8 | −0.3 | −37.2 | −40.9 | N.R.E | N.R.E | ||||||
| State-wide | 5130000 | −11.5 | −50.4 | −58.6 | −54.2 | 23.1 | −16.6 | −31.7 | −40.9 | −19.4 | −30.5 | −11.2 | −21.0 | 2.2 | −41.4 | −41.0 | −32.5 |
Source: Queensland Government Open Data Portal
Bold italic values indicate increases or decreases that were statistically significant at p < 0.05
aThe number of LGA-level ARIMA models (of 77 LGAs) which satisfied the robust estimation requirements for inclusion
bThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was higher than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the increase was statistically significant
cThe number of estimable LGA-level models where the observed crime rate was lower than the forecasted rate in each month. The value in parentheses indicates the number of models where the decrease was statistically significant
dThe relative difference between the observed rate and the forecasted rate is measured as a percentage increase or decrease from the predicted point estimate