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. 2021 Mar 10;11(3):e042934. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042934

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Estimated value of the period crude COVID-19 death rate (CCDR), New York (in deaths per 1000 person-years, period starting on 14 March and ending on day shown on the horizontal axis). Sources: Center for Disease Control and Prevention (crude deathrate) and authors’ calculations (CCDR, see online supplemental material 1: technical appendix).