Table 2.

A Further Investigation of the Effect of Density (Dependent variable listed in second row).

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Log Cases, IHS, Nov. 30	Log Cases, 225 days post-onset	Log Deaths, IHS, Nov. 30	Log Deaths, 215 days post-onset
Log effective local density	0.203	0.199	0.125	0.068
	(0.017)***	(0.021)***	(0.027)***	(0.040)*
	[0.129]	[0.136]	[0.072]	[0.044]
% people who commute by public transportation	−0.005	0.002	0.032	0.034
	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.007)***	(0.006)***
	[−0.010]	[0.005]	[0.057]	[0.101]
Log population density	0.009	0.025	0.034	0.090
	(0.012)	(0.015)*	(0.019)*	(0.027)***
	[0.010]	[0.028]	[0.035]	[0.091]
Large central metro county or large fringe metro county	−0.011	0.049	0.228	0.234
	(0.039)	(0.045)	(0.063)***	(0.073)***
	[−0.003]	[0.013]	[0.046]	[0.068]
Medium metro county or small metro county	0.010	0.058	0.130	0.104
	(0.027)	(0.032)*	(0.044)***	(0.054)*
	[0.003]	[0.018]	[0.032]	[0.033]
Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2009–2013	−0.004	−0.004	−0.009	−0.007
	(0.002)**	(0.002)	(0.003)***	(0.004)*
	[−0.022]	[−0.025]	[−0.047]	[-0.049]
Persons per household, 2009–2013	0.465	0.719	0.863	1.154
	(0.054)***	(0.070)***	(0.088)***	(0.124)***
	[0.073]	[0.118]	[0.122]	[0.170]
$R^2$	0.88	0.82	0.75	0.76
$R^2$ (per capita specification)	0.20	0.22	0.15	0.27
$N$	3138	2756	3138	1,445
F test (7 density variables)	39.18	35.68	27.77	26.38
p-value	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

* $p<0.1$; ** $p<0.05$; *** $p<0.01$. Standard errors in parentheses and standardized betas in brackets.

- All specifications contain an intercept and controls for log population, the share of people aged 75 and above, the percentage of nursing home residents in the population, log kilometers to the closest airport with flights from top 5 COVID countries, log household median income and the social capital index for 2014.

- Onset day is defined as the day at which the number of cases reaches 1 per 100,000 (for cases) and 0.5 per 100,000 (for deaths).

- We report two $R^2$ values: one from the specification with log population on the right-hand side, and another from an alternative specification where we instead subtract log population from the dependent variable as described in the first row. The latter allows an assessment of the joint importance of all regressors except log population.